Do Older Drivers Pose a Risk to Other Road Users?
Do Older Drivers Pose a Risk to Other Road Users?
复制标题
老年驾驶员会对其他道路使用者构成风险吗？
作者：
J. Langford;M. Bohensky;S. Koppel;S. Newstead
目的：利用澳大利亚致命事故数据，调查相对于其他年龄的驾驶员，老年驾驶员对其他道路使用者构成风险的程度。方法：主要数据来源是澳大利亚运输安全局的国家死亡数据库，该数据库提供了最近 10 年期间（1988 年、1990 年、1992 年、1994 年和 1996-2001 年）的死亡人数。对于每个驾驶员年龄组（“目标驾驶员”），计算以下类别道路使用者的死亡率：目标驾驶员死亡、乘客死亡、目标车辆外部但在涉及目标驾驶员的事故中死亡的道路使用者、除目标驾驶员以外的所有道路使用者死亡以及所有道路使用者死亡（包括目标驾驶员）。死亡率根据三个基础计算：每个年龄类别的人口数量、每个年龄类别的持照驾驶员数量以及每个年龄类别的驾驶距离。将 80 岁及以上驾驶员的不同道路使用者死亡率与年轻年龄组驾驶员的死亡率进行了比较。结果：按人群计算，老年驾驶员的“所有道路使用者”死亡率显着低于除 1 之外的所有年龄组（其他年龄组的 RR：1.2-3.1），并且一旦排除目标驾驶员，这些差异就会加强（RR：1.4-5.1），所有差异均显着。按驾照计算，与 30-39 岁至 70-79 岁驾驶员的死亡率相比，老年驾驶员的“所有道路使用者”死亡率显着较高（这些年龄组的 RR：0.5-0.7），但一旦排除目标驾驶员，老年驾驶员的“所有其他道路使用者”死亡率显着低于 17-24 岁至 30-39 岁驾驶员（RR：1.3-2.6）。按距离计算，与 25-29 岁至 70-79 岁的所有驾驶员相比，老年驾驶员的所有道路使用者死亡率显着较高（这些年龄组的 RR：0.1-0.4）。排除目标驾驶员后，老年驾驶员的所有其他道路使用者死亡率仍显着高于这些其他年龄组（RR：0.3-0.7）年。结论：基于三个基数中的两个（按人群和每人）。驾照），人们强烈主张，总体而言，驾驶员年龄越大，对其他道路使用者的威胁越小，尤其是对驾驶员车辆外部的道路使用者的威胁越小，只有在比较按距离死亡率时，80 岁及以上的驾驶员似乎才是对其他道路使用者的最大威胁。
Objective: To investigate the extent to which older drivers pose a risk to other road users, relative to drivers of other ages, using Australian fatal crash data. Method: The principal data source was the Australian Transport Safety Bureau's National Fatalities Database, which has provided fatality numbers for the most recent available 10-year period (1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996–2001). For each driver age group (“target drivers”), fatality rates were calculated for the following categories of road users: target driver deaths, their passenger deaths, road users external to the target vehicle but killed in the crash involving the target driver, all road users killed other than target drivers, and all road users killed (including target drivers). Fatality rates were calculated on three bases: per population numbers in each age category, per licensed driver numbers in each age category, and per distance driven for each age category. The different road user fatality rates associated with drivers aged 80 years and older were compared to the rates associated with drivers from younger age categories. Results: On a per population basis, older drivers had a significantly lower “all road users” fatality rate than all age groups bar one (RR for other age groups: 1.2–3.1) and these differences strengthened once target drivers were excluded (RR: 1.4–5.1), all differences significant. On a per licence basis, older drivers had significantly higher “all road users” fatality rate when compared to the rates for drivers aged 30–39 years through to 70–79 years (RR for these age groups: 0.5–0.7) but once the target drivers were excluded, older drivers' “all other road users & fatality rates for were significantly lower than for drivers aged 17–24 years to 30–39 (RR: 1.3–2.6) years. On a per-distance basis, older drivers had significantly higher all road users fatality rate when compared to the rates for all drivers aged 25–29 years through to 70–79 years (RR for these age groups: 0.1–0.4). Once the target drivers were excluded, older drivers' all other road users fatality rates remained significantly higher than for these other age groups (RR: 0.3–0.7) years. Conclusions: Based on two of the three bases (per population and per licence), it has been strongly asserted that overall, the older the driver, the less the threat to other road users—and particularly, the less the threat to road users external to the driver's vehicle. Drivers aged 80 years and older appeared to be the greatest threat to other road users only when per distance fatality rates were compared.
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Li, GH;Braver, ER;Chen, LH
通讯作者：
Chen, LH