Expected future plague levels in a wildlife host under different scenarios of climate change
Expected future plague levels in a wildlife host under different scenarios of climate change
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不同气候变化情景下野生动物宿主未来鼠疫水平的预期
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01725.x
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
N. Stenseth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tord Snäll;R. Benestad;N. Stenseth
我们预测了在不同的气候变化情景下，北美大草原未来的鼠疫和黑尾草原土拨鼠动态。使用了气候驱动的宿主-寄生虫系统联合动态模型。区域气候预测是通过对气专委最近第四次评估报告的全球气候模型集合所产生的全球气候情景进行物理-统计降尺度而获得的。该研究显示了预测未来区域气候和气候驱动的人口动态所涉及的不确定性，但揭示了鼠疫水平不变或较低，导致黑尾土拨鼠种群增加，这是可以预期的。特别是在假定温室气体排放量最高、预计未来变暖幅度最大的情景下，预计瘟疫会减少。此外，在高排放情景下，预计极高数量的受感染菌落的概率会降低，沿着极低总数菌落的概率也会降低。假定的主要潜在机制是高温对跳蚤（传播媒介）和跳蚤介导的致病细菌传播的抑制作用。我们的研究强调了使用动态生态（这里是宿主-寄生虫）模型以及气候预测集合来调查种群和寄生虫对气候变化的反应的重要性。
We predicted future plague and black‐tailed prairie dog dynamics in the North American prairies under different scenarios of climate change. A climate‐driven model for the joint dynamic of the host–parasite system was used. Projections for the regional climate were obtained through empirical–statistical downscaling of global climate scenarios generated by an ensemble of global climate models for the recent Fourth Assessment Report by the IPCC. The study shows the uncertainties involved in predicting future regional climate and climate‐driven population dynamics, but reveals that unchanged or lower levels of plague, leading to increased black‐tailed prairie dog colonies, can be expected. Less plague is particularly expected for scenarios that assume the highest emission of greenhouse gases associated with the greatest projected future warming. Moreover, under high‐emission scenarios, decreased probabilities of extremely high numbers of infected colonies are expected, along with decreased probabilities of extremely low total numbers of colonies. The assumed main underlying mechanism is an inhibiting effect of high temperatures on fleas (dispersal vector) and on flea‐mediated transmission of the disease‐causing bacterium. Our study highlights the importance of using dynamic ecological (here host–parasite) models together with ensembles of climate projections to investigate the responses of populations and parasites to a changed climate.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough