Empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of Icelandic buildings affected by the 2000 sequence of earthquakes
Empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of Icelandic buildings affected by the 2000 sequence of earthquakes
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受 2000 年序列地震影响的冰岛建筑的地震脆弱性实证评估
DOI：
10.1007/s10518-018-0413-x
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Ioannou I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ioannou I
2000年6月，冰岛最大的农业区在4天内发生了两次Mw6.5级地震，造成重大破坏，但没有人员伤亡。地震震中和断层破裂之间的距离约为15公里。近5000栋低层住宅楼受到影响，其中一些位于断层之间，并暴露在两次地震的强烈地面运动中。为保险目的，对震中地区每栋住宅楼的震后损坏和维修费用进行了评估。该数据库对整个区域的情况详细而完整，是用于地震损失估计的最佳质量的震后脆弱性数据集之一。尽管如此，从这个数据库的脆弱性曲线的建设受到阻碍的事实，即损失值代表的累积损害，从两个连续的地震在某些地区，和单次地震在其他地区。本文提出了一种基于β回归的新方法，以确定建筑物遭受累积破坏的地区的地理界限，并预测每个地区未来事件序列的地震损失。结果显示，受单一地震影响的地区的平均建筑物损失低于建筑物重置价值的10%，而在两次地震影响的地区，这一数字平均增加到25%。所提出的方法可用于经验性地评估经历了一系列事件的其他地区的脆弱性，如2012年的埃米利亚-罗马涅（意大利）。
In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012.
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