Modelling science trustworthiness under publish or perish pressure.
Modelling science trustworthiness under publish or perish pressure.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.171511
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Ioannidis JPA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grimes DR;Bauch CT;Ioannidis JPA
科学出版物对于科学事业极其重要。然而，人们担心，主要通过发表论文来奖励科学家会产生一种不正当的激励，导致粗心和欺诈行为猖獗，而顶级期刊倾向于新颖、积极的发现，而不是证实零假设的调查，这使得情况更加复杂。这可能会加剧多个领域的可重复性危机，并有可能破坏科学和公众对科学发现的信任。迄今为止，尽管量化问题很重要，但对影响科学可信度的因素的建模相对较少。我们提出了一个简单的现象学模型，由一群勤奋、粗心和不道德的科学家组成，资金由已发表的成果分配。该分析表明，特定领域已发表科学的可信度受到误报率和积极结果压力的影响。我们发现减少可用资金会对由此产生的可信度产生负面影响，并研究了打击不可重复科学传播的策略。
Scientific publication is immensely important to the scientific endeavour. There is, however, concern that rewarding scientists chiefly on publication creates a perverse incentive, allowing careless and fraudulent conduct to thrive, compounded by the predisposition of top-tier journals towards novel, positive findings rather than investigations confirming null hypothesis. This potentially compounds a reproducibility crisis in several fields, and risks undermining science and public trust in scientific findings. To date, there has been comparatively little modelling on factors that influence science trustworthiness, despite the importance of quantifying the problem. We present a simple phenomenological model with cohorts of diligent, careless and unethical scientists, with funding allocated by published outputs. This analysis suggests that trustworthiness of published science in a given field is influenced by false positive rate, and pressures for positive results. We find decreasing available funding has negative consequences for resulting trustworthiness, and examine strategies to combat propagation of irreproducible science.
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影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Chavalarias, David;Wallach, Joshua David;Ioannidis, John P. A.
通讯作者：
Ioannidis, John P. A.
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Ioannidis, JPA
通讯作者：
Ioannidis, JPA
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Colquhoun D
通讯作者：
Colquhoun D
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1212247109
发表时间：
2012-10-16
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Fang, Ferric C.;Steen, R. Grant;Casadevall, Arturo
通讯作者：
Casadevall, Arturo
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Fanelli D
通讯作者：
Fanelli D