Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.
Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4
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发表时间：
2023-06-28
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Virkkala, Anna-Maria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Criado, Mariana Garcia;Myers-Smith, Isla H.;Bjorkman, Anne D.;Normand, Signe;Blach-Overgaard, Anne;Thomas, Haydn J. D.;Eskelinen, Anu;Happonen, Konsta;Alatalo, Juha M.;Anadon-Rosell, Alba;Aubin, Isabelle;te Beest, Mariska;Betway-May, Katlyn R.;Blok, Daan;Buras, Allan;Cerabolini, Bruno E. L.;Christie, Katherine;Cornelissen, J. Hans C.;Forbes, Bruce C.;Frei, Esther R.;Grogan, Paul;Hermanutz, Luise;Hollister, Robert D.;Hudson, James;Iturrate-Garcia, Maitane;Kaarlejaervi, Elina;Kleyer, Michael;Lamarque, Laurent J.;Lembrechts, Jonas J.;Levesque, Esther;Luoto, Miska;Macek, Petr;May, Jeremy L.;Prevey, Janet S.;Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela;Sheremetiev, Serge N.;Collier, Laura Siegwart;Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.;Trant, Andrew;Venn, Susanna E.;Virkkala, Anna-Maria
气候变化导致物种重新分配。在苔原生物群落中，灌木通常在扩展，但并非所有苔原灌木种类都会受益于变暖。获胜者和失败者物种以及可能决定成功或失败的特征，尚未得到充分识别。在这里，我们调查了从物种分布模型得出的过去的丰度变化，当前范围大小和投影范围变化是否与植物性状值和种内性状变化有关。我们将17,921条特征记录与观察到的过去和模拟了来自三个大洲的62种苔原灌木物种的未来分布进行了建模。我们发现，种子质量和特定叶片面积变化较大的物种具有较大的预测范围变化，预计的获胜者物种具有更大的种子质量值。但是，性状值和变化与当前和预测的范围并不始终如一，也不与过去的丰度变化相关。总体而言，我们的发现表明，丰度变化和范围变化不会导致灌木特征组成的方向修改，因为赢家和失败者物种具有相对相似的性状空间。
功能性状数据可以指导物种对环境变化的反应的预测。在这里，作者表明，温暖苔原生物群落中的赢家和失败者灌木在特征空间中重叠，因此可能很难基于普遍测量的性状进行预测。
Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. Functional trait data could guide predictions of species responses to environmental change. Here, the authors show that winner and loser shrub species in the warming tundra biome overlap in trait space and may therefore be difficult to predict based on commonly measured traits.
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