The interplay of policy, behavior, and socioeconomic conditions in early COVID-19 epidemiology in Georgia
The interplay of policy, behavior, and socioeconomic conditions in early COVID-19 epidemiology in Georgia
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乔治亚州早期 COVID-19 流行病学中政策、行为和社会经济条件的相互作用
DOI：
10.1101/2021.03.24.21254256
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Harris, Mallory J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harris, Mallory J.
为了调查当地公共卫生秩序、行为和人口因素对早期流行动态的影响，我们调查了美国佐治亚州各县之间的差异。我们进行回归分析，以确定(1)当地公共卫生秩序，(2)流动性作为行为的替代指标，以及(3)流行病学结果(即病例和死亡)的预测因子。我们使用了一项事件研究来确定社会距离和就地避难秩序是否会导致流动性的变化。早期大规模暴发风险较大的县(即人口较多、首发病例较早)更有可能引入地方公共卫生秩序。社交疏远秩序在引入后10天逐渐减少了19%的流动性，流动性较低与较少的病例和死亡相关。空气污染和人口规模是病例和死亡的预测因素，而较大的老年或黑人人口是流动性较低和病例较多的预测因素，这表明脆弱人群的自我保护行为。早期流行病学结果反映了对政策命令的反应，以及与疾病脆弱性和社会距离能力有关的现有健康和社会经济差距。很难区分行为变化和人口因素的影响，因为这种流行病嵌入了一个复杂的社会系统，具有多个潜在的反馈。
To investigate the impact of local public health orders, behavior, and population factors on early epidemic dynamics, we investigated variation among counties in the U.S. state of Georgia. We conducted regressions to identify predictors of (1) local public health orders, (2) mobility as a proxy for behavior, and (3) epidemiological outcomes (i.e., cases and deaths). We used an event study to determine whether social distancing and shelter-in-place orders caused a change in mobility. Counties at greater risk for large early outbreaks (i.e., larger populations and earlier first cases) were more likely to introduce local public health orders. Social distancing orders gradually reduced mobility by 19% ten days after their introduction, and lower mobility was associated with fewer cases and deaths. Air pollution and population size were predictors of cases and deaths, while larger elderly or Black population were predictors of lower mobility and greater cases, suggesting self-protective behavior in vulnerable populations. Early epidemiological outcomes reflected responses to policy orders and existing health and socioeconomic disparities related to disease vulnerability and ability to socially distance. Teasing apart the impact of behavior changes and population factors is difficult because the epidemic is embedded in a complex social system with multiple potential feedbacks.
DOI：
10.1080/00031305.1990.10475731
发表时间：
1990-08
期刊：
The American Statistician
影响因子：
--
作者：
L. Magee
通讯作者：
L. Magee
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6947e2
发表时间：
2020-11-27
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Van Dyke ME;Rogers TM;Pevzner E;Satterwhite CL;Shah HB;Beckman WJ;Ahmed F;Hunt DC;Rule J
通讯作者：
Rule J
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Christensen SR;Pilling EB;Eyring JB;Dickerson G;Sloan CD;Magnusson BM
通讯作者：
Magnusson BM