The Usefulness of the Test-Positive Proportion of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 as a Surveillance Tool.
The Usefulness of the Test-Positive Proportion of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 as a Surveillance Tool.
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwab023
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发表时间：
2021-07-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Cummings DAT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hitchings MDT;Dean NE;García-Carreras B;Hladish TJ;Huang AT;Yang B;Cummings DAT
由于确认严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型感染的病毒学检测受到限制，对2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例数随时间和地点的比较变得复杂。检测呈阳性的受检测个体比例（检测阳性比例，TPP）可用于通报发病率趋势。我们提出了一个在经历COVID-19流行的人群中进行检测的模型，并根据与检测和其他引起COVID-19样症状的病原体的存在相关的明确参数推导出TPP的表达。在时间上或地点之间检测实践没有显著变化的情况下，TPP与感染发生率呈正相关。我们发现，出现covid -19样症状的被检测个体比例编码的信息与TPP相似，但与检测参数之间存在不同的关系，因此可以提供有关TPP和发病率动态变化的额外信息。最后，我们比较了截至2020年10月美国各州确诊病例和TPP的数据。我们猜测为什么各州的TPP可能高于或低于平均水平。收集被检测个体的症状状态和年龄/风险类别可以提高跨太平洋伙伴关系在评估不同地点和时间的大流行状态方面的效用。
Comparison of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case numbers over time and between locations is complicated by limits to virological testing to confirm severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. The proportion of tested individuals who have tested positive (test-positive proportion, TPP) can potentially be used to inform trends in incidence. We propose a model for testing in a population experiencing an epidemic of COVID-19 and derive an expression for TPP in terms of well-defined parameters related to testing and presence of other pathogens causing COVID-19-like symptoms. In the absence of dramatic shifts of testing practices in time or between locations, the TPP is positively correlated with the incidence of infection. We show that the proportion of tested individuals who present COVID-19-like symptoms encodes information similar to the TPP but has different relationships with the testing parameters, and can thus provide additional information regarding dynamic changes in TPP and incidence. Finally, we compare data on confirmed cases and TPP from US states up to October 2020. We conjecture why states might have higher or lower TPP than average. Collection of symptom status and age/risk category of tested individuals can increase the utility of TPP in assessing the state of the pandemic in different locations and times.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2011802117
发表时间：
2020-09-08
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Lau, Max S. Y.;Grenfell, Bryan;Lopman, Ben
通讯作者：
Lopman, Ben
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Czumbel, Laszlo Mark;Kiss, Szabolcs;Varga, Gabor
通讯作者：
Varga, Gabor
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Chin, Taylor;Kahn, Rebecca;Kiang, Mathew, V
通讯作者：
Kiang, Mathew, V
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Jarvis, Christopher I.;Van Zandvoort, Kevin;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John