Age and generational patterns of overdose death risk from opioids and other drugs.
Age and generational patterns of overdose death risk from opioids and other drugs.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41591-020-0855-y
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发表时间：
2020-05
期刊：
影响因子：
82.9
通讯作者：
Burke DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jalal H;Buchanich JM;Sinclair DR;Roberts MS;Burke DS
美国目前的药物滥用流行病是复杂和动态的，在制定和评估政策时应这样处理。在美国，药物过量死亡(主要归因于阿片类药物滥用)在近40年里呈指数级增长，但这种增长的机制尚不清楚。分析了从1999年到2017年的661,565例过量死亡病例，我们发现每个出生年份队列的年龄特定药物过量死亡曲线按高斯曲线上升和下降。每一连续出生年份队列死亡率曲线的上升部分比之前所有出生年份队列的上升部分都要快。这种加速可以归因于两个截然不同的过程之一：一个稳定的峰值年龄，死亡率曲线从一个出生年份队列到下一个出生年份队列的幅度不断增加；或者死亡率曲线峰值年龄向青年移动。吸毒过量流行在1945-1964年龄段(婴儿潮一代)中出现并有所增加，在1965-1980年年龄段(X世代)中向年轻人转移，然后在1981-1990年千禧一代中恢复增加幅度的模式。这些不断变化的年龄和代际模式可能是由社会经济因素和药物可获得性驱动的，对这些因素的了解对于制定有效的过量用药预防措施非常重要。
The ongoing substance misuse epidemic in the United States is complex and dynamic and should be approached as such in the development and evaluation of policy. Drug overdose deaths (largely attributable to opioid misuse) in the USA have grown exponentially for almost four decades, but the mechanisms of this growth are poorly understood. Analyzing 661,565 overdose deaths from 1999 through 2017, we show that the age-specific drug overdose mortality curve for each birth-year cohort rises and falls according to a Gaussian shaped curve. The ascending portion of each successive birth-year cohort mortality curve is accelerated compared with that of all preceding birth-year cohorts. This acceleration can be attributed to either of two distinct processes: a stable peak age, with an increasing amplitude of mortality rate curves from one birth-year cohort to the next; or a youth-ward shift in the peak age of the mortality rate curves. The overdose epidemic emerged and increased in amplitude among the 1945-1964 cohort (Baby Boomers), shifted youth-ward among the 1965-1980 cohort (Generation X), and then resumed the pattern of increasing amplitude in the 1981-1990 Millennials. These shifting age and generational patterns are likely driven by socioeconomic factors and drug availability, the understanding of which is important for development of effective overdose prevention measures.
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影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Duncan, David F.;Nicholson, Thomas;Bonaguro, John
通讯作者：
Bonaguro, John
影响因子：
50
作者：
Best, Ana F.;Haozous, Emily A.;Shiels, Meredith S.
通讯作者：
Shiels, Meredith S.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Mars, Sarah G.;Bourgois, Philippe;Ciccarone, Daniel
通讯作者：
Ciccarone, Daniel
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
LUTHAR, SS;ANTON, SF;ROUNSAVILLE, BJ
通讯作者：
ROUNSAVILLE, BJ
DOI：
10.1126/science.aau1184
发表时间：
2018-09-21
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jalal H;Buchanich JM;Roberts MS;Balmert LC;Zhang K;Burke DS
通讯作者：
Burke DS