Coinfection Dynamics of Two Diseases in a Single Host Population.

Coinfection Dynamics of Two Diseases in a Single Host Population.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.jmaa.2016.04.039
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发表时间:
2016-10-01
影响因子:
1.3
通讯作者:
Ruan, Shigui
Ruan, Shigui
中科院分区:
数学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Gao, Daozhou;Porco, Travis C.;Ruan, Shigui

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研究了一类描述两种传染病在单个种群中同时感染和共同传播的易感-易感-易感(SIS)传染病模型。寄主种群由两个亚类组成:敏感亚类和感染性亚类,而感染个体又分为三个亚类:被第一病原/病原体、第二病原体/病原体和两者兼有的感染。如果一种病原体/病原体的存在不影响另一种病原体的传播,则得到所有病例的基本复制数,它完全确定系统的全局稳定性。当取消对双重感染宿主传播力的限制时,我们引入了入侵繁殖数,并将其与另外两种类型的复制数进行了比较,证明了在一定条件下两种疾病的一致持久性。数值模拟表明,该系统可以表现出更丰富的动力学行为,如后向分叉、双稳和Hopf分叉。
A susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that describes the coinfection and cotransmission of two infectious diseases spreading through a single population is studied. The host population consists of two subclasses: susceptible and infectious, and the infectious individuals are further divided into three subgroups: those infected by the first agent/pathogen, the second agent/pathogen, and both. The basic reproduction numbers for all cases are derived which completely determine the global stability of the system if the presence of one agent/pathogen does not affect the transmission of the other. When the constraint on the transmissibility of the dually infected hosts is removed, we introduce the invasion reproduction number, compare it with two other types of reproduction number and show the uniform persistence of both diseases under certain conditions. Numerical simulations suggest that the system can display much richer dynamics such as backward bifurcation, bistability and Hopf bifurcation.
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