Farm Exit among Smallhoder Farmers of Nepal: A Bayesian Logistic Regression Models Approach.
Farm Exit among Smallhoder Farmers of Nepal: A Bayesian Logistic Regression Models Approach.
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DOI：
10.1007/s40003-020-00465-4
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发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ghimire D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pokhrel KP;Sharaf T;Bhandari P;Ghimire D
离开还是不离开农业？这是尼泊尔农村农业环境中大量农户面临的一个两难境地，在那里，近三分之二的人口是小保持器农民。利用2015年从农户中收集的独特详细的回顾性面板数据，我们研究了获得耕地持有权和土地保有权对随后农场退出的影响。我们通过开发一个强大的贝叶斯预测模型来预测农场退出的概率，解决了完全分离的统计建模问题。我们使用弱信息先验的贝叶斯框架进行逻辑回归模型，并将其与其他可用的二进制响应模型进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，耕地的规模有很强的负面影响，农场退出，所有其他控制净。此外，从他人那里租用农田或将农田租给他人的农民更有可能退出农业。我们估计，一个农户每年至少需要5卡塔（六分之一公顷）的土地才能继续务农。
To leave or not to leave farming? This is a dilemma facing a large number of farm households in a rural agrarian setting of Nepal where nearly two-thirds of the population is small holder farmers. Using the uniquely detailed retrospective panel data collected in 2015 from farming households, we examine the influence of the access to cultivated land holding and land tenure on subsequent farm exit. We address the statistical modeling issue of complete separation by developing a robust Bayesian predictive model to predict the probability of farm exit. We use the Bayesian framework with weakly informative prior to carry out the logistic regression model and compare it with other available binary response models. Our results show that the size of cultivated land has a strong negative influence on farm exit, net of all other controls. Moreover, farmers who rented farmland from others or who rented farmland to others were significantly more likely to exit farming. We estimate that a farm household required at least 5 Katha of land (one sixth of a hectare) per year to stay in farming.
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