Statistical climate model downscaling for impact projections in the Midwest United States
Statistical climate model downscaling for impact projections in the Midwest United States
复制标题
美国中西部影响预测的统计气候模型降尺度
DOI：
10.1002/joc.7406
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hamilton, Holly L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Polasky, Andrew D.;Evans, Jenni L.;Fuentes, Jose D.;Hamilton, Holly L.
为了使未来的气候预测发挥作用，它们必须在地方层面具有可操作性。在这项研究中，我们开发了适合用于预测干旱、能源使用、用水和作物生产的每日温度和降水气候情景。我们研究了美国中西部未来气温和降水变化的幅度，以应对三种未来气候变化情景。结果用于评估与该地区预期气候变化相关的极端降水发生率和人类舒适度（使用热量指数）的变化。我们使用自组织地图和基于随机森林的技术来生成以伊利诺伊州为中心的地区 279 个气象站的每日温度和降水数据。我们确定随机森林模型在最高和最低温度方面表现最佳，而自组织映射在降水方面表现最佳。使用耦合模型相互比较项目第五阶段的九个模型，针对历史和未来时期的低、中和高温室气体排放情景生成了缩小的每日温度和降水值。根据最近的趋势，我们将结果重点放在高排放情景上，结果显示，2071 年至 2100 年期间，该地区每日最高气温平均上升 4.3°C。研究区域南半部的降水量减少了 15%，而北半部的降水量增加了类似的百分比。区域环境变化导致到2100年，全区夏季平均炎热指数上升5.8°，可能产生极端高温的天数增加48%，标准化降水量和蒸散指数平均值下降1.9（干旱加剧）。
For future climate projections to be useful they must be actionable at the local level. In this study, we develop daily temperature and precipitation climate scenarios suitable for use in projections of drought, energy use, water use, and crop production. We investigate the magnitude of future changes to air temperature and precipitation in the Midwest United States in response to three future climate change scenarios. Results are used to assess changes to incidence of precipitation extremes and human comfort (using heat index) associated with the anticipated climate changes in the region. We use self‐organizing maps and random forest based techniques to generate daily realizations of temperature and precipitation for 279 weather stations in a region centred on Illinois. We determine that the random forest model performs best for maximum and minimum temperatures, while the self‐organizing map performs best for precipitation. Using nine models from the Coupled Model Inter‐Comparison Project Phase 5, downscaled daily temperature and precipitation values are generated for low, moderate, and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for historical and future periods. Based on recent trends, we focus our results on the high emissions scenario, and show an average increase of 4.3°C in maximum daily air temperature across the region for the 2071–2100 period. Precipitation decreases by up to 15% in the southern half of the study region, with a similar percentage increase in the northern half of the region. The regional environmental changes result in an increase of 5.8° in average summer heat index, and increase of 48% in the number of days likely to produce extreme heat, and a decrease in the average value of the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index of 1.9 (indicating increased drought) across the region by 2100.
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每日和每月的温度和降水统计数据作为区域气候模型的性能指标。
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
E. Kjellström;F. Boberg;M. Castro;J. Christensen;G. Nikulin;E. Sánchez
通讯作者：
E. Sánchez
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Hatfield, J. L.;Wright-Morton, Lois;Hall, Beth
通讯作者：
Hall, Beth
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Zhe Zhang;Yanping Li;Fei Chen;M. Barlage;Zhenhua Li
通讯作者：
Zhe Zhang;Yanping Li;Fei Chen;M. Barlage;Zhenhua Li
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Gerken, Tobias;Bromley, Gabriel T.;Stoy, Paul C.
通讯作者：
Stoy, Paul C.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1615922114
发表时间：
2017-03-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Liang, Xin-Zhong;Wu, You;Kennedy, Jennifer A.
通讯作者：
Kennedy, Jennifer A.