Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality in Florida: time-series analyses from 1969 to 2004.
Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality in Florida: time-series analyses from 1969 to 2004.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1530-0277.2010.01280.x
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发表时间：
2010-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wagenaar AC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Maldonado-Molina MM;Wagenaar AC
一百多项研究已经确定了饮料酒精税和价格对销售和饮酒行为的影响。然而，相对较少的研究探讨了酒精税对酒精相关死亡率的影响。我们评估了 1969 年至 2004 年佛罗里达州酒精税率的多次变化对疾病（而非伤害）死亡率的影响。使用了时间序列准实验研究设计，包括佛罗里达州内的非酒精死亡率和其他州的酒精相关死亡率进行比较。 36 年来，我们对佛罗里达州总共 432 个每月的死亡率观察结果进行了检查。分析包括 ARIMA、固定效应和随机效应模型，包括噪声模型、税收自变量和结构协变量。我们发现，在佛罗里达州立法提高酒精税后，与长期大量饮酒相关的死亡率显着降低。死亡频率（t=−2.73，p=.007）和每人群死亡率（t=−2.06，p=.04）显着下降。弹性效应估计值为−0.22 (t=−1.88, p=.06)，表明税收增加 10% 与死亡人数下降 2.2% 相关。增加酒精税与佛罗里达州酒精所致死亡率的显着降低有关。结果表明，如果实际税率恢复到 1983 年的水平（上次增税时），每年可以挽救 600-800 人的生命。研究结果强调了税收政策作为减少长期酗酒相关死亡的有效手段的作用。
Over a hundred studies have established the effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on sales and drinking behaviors. Yet, relatively few studies have examined effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality. We evaluated effects of multiple changes in alcohol tax rates in the State of Florida from 1969–2004 on disease (not injury) mortality. A time-series quasi-experimental research design was used, including non-alcohol deaths within Florida and other states’ rates of alcohol-related mortality for comparison. A total of 432 monthly observations of mortality in Florida were examined over the 36-year period. Analyses included ARIMA, fixed-effects, and random effects models, including a noise model, tax independent variables, and structural covariates. We found significant reductions in mortality related to chronic heavy alcohol consumption following legislatively induced increases in alcohol taxes in Florida. The frequency of deaths (t=−2.73, p=.007) and the rate per population (t=−2.06, p=.04) declined significantly. The elasticity effect estimate is −0.22 (t=−1.88, p=.06), indicating a 10% increase in tax is associated with a 2.2% decline in deaths. Increased alcohol taxes are associated with significant and sizable reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality in Florida. Results indicate that 600–800 lives per year could be saved if real tax rates were returned to 1983 levels (when the last tax increase occurred). Findings highlight the role of tax policy as an effective means for reducing deaths associated with chronic heavy alcohol use.
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影响因子：
8.8
作者：
通讯作者：
--
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Markowitz, S
通讯作者：
Markowitz, S
影响因子：
6.8
作者：
AKAIKE, H
通讯作者：
AKAIKE, H
DOI：
10.15288/jsa.1999.60.261
发表时间：
1999-03-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF STUDIES ON ALCOHOL
影响因子：
--
作者：
Mangione, TW;Howland, J;Levine, S
通讯作者：
Levine, S
影响因子：
8
作者：
Hingson, R;Heeren, T;Wechsler, H
通讯作者：
Wechsler, H