Syndromic surveillance using monthly aggregate health systems information data: methods with application to COVID-19 in Liberia.
Syndromic surveillance using monthly aggregate health systems information data: methods with application to COVID-19 in Liberia.
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyab094
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发表时间：
2021-08-30
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Cross-site COVID-19 Syndromic Surveillance Working Group
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fulcher IR;Boley EJ;Gopaluni A;Varney PF;Barnhart DA;Kulikowski N;Mugunga JC;Murray M;Law MR;Hedt-Gauthier B;Cross-site COVID-19 Syndromic Surveillance Working Group
及早发现SARS-CoV-2传播，为当地公共卫生应对提供信息是当务之急。然而，由于获得SARS-CoV-2诊断测试和检测基础设施的机会有限，它受到了阻碍。在检测能力有限的地区，常规收集的健康数据可能被用来识别地理位置，在更具体的检测活动中，出现与新冠肺炎相关的症状的比率高于预期。我们开发了症状监测工具，以分析包括利比里亚在内的7个低收入和中等收入国家的卫生机构关于新冠肺炎相关指标的汇总数据。我们使用时间序列模型来估计预期的月计数和95%的预测区间，基于过去4年的数据。在这里，我们详细介绍了我们的数据准备程序、建模方法和数据可视化工具，并提供了适用于利比里亚的资源。为了证明这些方法的实用性，我们介绍了在新冠肺炎大流行的最初几个月(2020年1月至8月)，利比里亚卫生机构对急性呼吸道感染(ARI)的症状监测结果。对于每个月，我们估计了325家卫生机构和15个县的ARI病例预期数量和观测数量之间的偏差，以确定SARS-CoV-2传播的潜在地区。症状监测可用于监测卫生设施集水区特定症状的尖峰，这可能表明SARS-CoV-2传播。所开发的方法与常规健康数据系统的现有基础设施相结合，可用于监测各种指标和其他可能流行的传染病。
Early detection of SARS-CoV-2 circulation is imperative to inform local public health response. However, it has been hindered by limited access to SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests and testing infrastructure. In regions with limited testing capacity, routinely collected health data might be leveraged to identify geographical locales experiencing higher than expected rates of COVID-19-associated symptoms for more specific testing activities. We developed syndromic surveillance tools to analyse aggregated health facility data on COVID-19-related indicators in seven low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Liberia. We used time series models to estimate the expected monthly counts and 95% prediction intervals based on 4 years of previous data. Here, we detail and provide resources for our data preparation procedures, modelling approach and data visualisation tools with application to Liberia. To demonstrate the utility of these methods, we present syndromic surveillance results for acute respiratory infections (ARI) at health facilities in Liberia during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through August 2020). For each month, we estimated the deviation between the expected and observed number of ARI cases for 325 health facilities and 15 counties to identify potential areas of SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Syndromic surveillance can be used to monitor health facility catchment areas for spikes in specific symptoms which may indicate SARS-CoV-2 circulation. The developed methods coupled with the existing infrastructure for routine health data systems can be leveraged to monitor a variety of indicators and other infectious diseases with epidemic potential.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abf8003
发表时间：
2021-04-23
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Pekar J;Worobey M;Moshiri N;Scheffler K;Wertheim JO
通讯作者：
Wertheim JO
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Murthy S;Leligdowicz A;Adhikari NK
通讯作者：
Adhikari NK
影响因子：
15.1
作者：
Shah, Sachin J.;Barish, Peter N.;Langelier, Charles
通讯作者：
Langelier, Charles
影响因子：
39
作者：
Weinberger, Daniel M.;Chen, Jenny;Viboud, Cecile
通讯作者：
Viboud, Cecile
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Wagenaar, Bradley H.;Sherr, Kenneth;Wagenaar, Alexander C.
通讯作者：
Wagenaar, Alexander C.