Enhancement of semi-theoretical models for predicting peak discharges in breached embankment dams
Enhancement of semi-theoretical models for predicting peak discharges in breached embankment dams
复制标题
增强预测溃堤坝峰值流量的半理论模型
DOI：
10.1007/s10652-019-09730-9
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发表时间：
2020-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Yang Sha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Bo;Liu Wenjun;Zhang Jianmin;Chen Yunliang;Wu Chao;Peng Yong;Wu Zhenyu;Liu Xin;Yang Sha
在应用半理论模型预测溃决堤坝洪峰流量的过程中，经常遇到缺乏必要的模型参数，如溃决高度等。为了解决这一不足，改进半理论模型在估计洪峰流量方面的应用，提出了一种基于复合数据库（72次历史溃坝）子集，利用溃坝底面以上水深（Hw）预测溃坝高度（Hb）的数学关系。将决口高度关系应用于复合数据库时，具有较高的决定系数（R2）。用决口高度关系的预测代替观测结果，本文所使用的半理论模型在预测精度和不确定性方面都得到了相似的结果。采用决口高度关系，降低了模型预测洪峰流量的离散性，改善了模型的偏态。因此，可以明显提高半理论模型在预测峰值放电中的应用。结果表明，当坝体溃坝时hbi的观测值无法获得时，利用该关系式计算的溃坝高度是一个令人满意的替代。随着数据库数量的增加，预测精度略有下降，但下降幅度有限。需要注意的是，所提出的决口高度关系在原则上仅适用于堤防坝口高度的预测。
During the application of semi-theoretical models to predict peak discharges for breached embankment dams, it is often encountered to be lack of necessary model parameters such as breach height. In order to solve this deficiency and improve the application of the semi-theoretical models for estimating the peak discharge, a mathematical relation is proposed to predict the breach height (Hb) using the water depth above breach bottom (Hw) based on a subset of a composite database (72 historical dam failures). The breach height relation has a high coefficient of determination (R2) when it is applied in the composite database. Using the prediction by the breach height relation as a substitute for the observation, these semi-theoretical models used here produce similar results in terms of both prediction accuracy and uncertainty. Moreover, the dispersion of the flood peak discharge predicted by forecasting models is weakened and the skewness is improved by adopting the breach height relation. Therefore, the application of semi-theoretical models to predict peak discharges can be improved obviously. So, it is found that the breach height using the proposed relation can be a satisfactory substitute when the observed value ofHbis unavailable in a dam failure. Besides, the prediction accuracy will decrease slightly with the increase of database, but the decrease is limited. It should be noted that the proposed breach height relation is only suitable for predicting the height of embankment dam breach in principle.
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000470
发表时间：
2012-03
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Thornton;Michael W. Pierce;S. Abt;V. Singh
通讯作者：
C. Thornton;Michael W. Pierce;S. Abt;V. Singh
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(1996)122:4(314
发表时间：
1996-07
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Vernon K. Hagen
通讯作者：
Vernon K. Hagen
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Bo Wang;Yun-liang Chen;Chao Wu;Jianhua Dong;Xiao Ma;Jiajun Song
通讯作者：
Bo Wang;Yun-liang Chen;Chao Wu;Jianhua Dong;Xiao Ma;Jiajun Song
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Hooshyaripor, Farhad;Tahershamsi, Ahmad;Golian, Saeed
通讯作者：
Golian, Saeed
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9429(1984)110:5(567
发表时间：
1984-01-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING-ASCE
影响因子：
--
作者：
MACDONALD, TC;LANGRIDGEMONOPOLIS, J
通讯作者：
LANGRIDGEMONOPOLIS, J