Near-Ground Wind Profiles of Tornadic and Nontornadic Environments in the United States and Europe from ERA5 Reanalyses
Near-Ground Wind Profiles of Tornadic and Nontornadic Environments in the United States and Europe from ERA5 Reanalyses
复制标题
ERA5 再分析中美国和欧洲龙卷风和非龙卷风环境的近地风廓线
DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-20-0153.1
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Parker, Matthew D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coffer, Brice E.;Taszarek, Mateusz;Parker, Matthew D.
近地面风廓线表现出显着的控制组织，强度和稳定性的低层上升气流和中气旋在严重的雷暴，从而与龙卷风发生的概率。目前的工作建立在最近的改进，超级单体龙卷风预报的可能性，风暴相对螺旋度（SRH）集成在逐渐变浅的层，提高了技能，区分显着tornadic和nontornadic严重雷暴。对于美国和欧洲的严重雷暴群，从ERA 5再分析中计算出探测衍生参数，与之前的分析相比，该分析显着提高了垂直分辨率。ERA 5代表美国对流环境，类似于风暴预报中心的中尺度表面客观分析，但其在对流层较低层的垂直水平的数量更多，允许在较浅的层进行计算。在ERA 5中，在美国和欧洲，SRH的逐渐变浅的层提供了非龙卷风和显著龙卷风雷暴之间的更大区分。在美国，0-100米AGL层具有最高的预测技能的任何SRH层测试，虽然收益是比较温和的层浅于0-500米AGL。在欧洲，使用较浅层的SRH的好处甚至更大;对流层较低的SRH是迄今为止最熟练的成分，远远超过相关的复合参数，如显著龙卷风参数（在欧洲可以忽略不计）。
The near-ground wind profile exhibits significant control over the organization, intensity, and steadiness of low-level updrafts and mesocyclones in severe thunderstorms, and thus their probability of being associated with tornadogenesis. The present work builds upon recent improvements in supercell tornado forecasting by examining the possibility that storm-relative helicity (SRH) integrated over progressively shallower layers has increased skill in differentiating between significantly tornadic and nontornadic severe thunderstorms. For a population of severe thunderstorms in the United States and Europe, sounding-derived parameters are computed from the ERA5 reanalysis, which has significantly enhanced vertical resolution compared to prior analyses. The ERA5 is shown to represent U.S. convective environments similarly to the Storm Prediction Center’s mesoscale surface objective analysis, but its greater number of vertical levels in the lower troposphere permits calculations to be performed over shallower layers. In the ERA5, progressively shallower layers of SRH provide greater discrimination between nontornadic and significantly tornadic thunderstorms in both the United States and Europe. In the United States, the 0–100 m AGL layer has the highest forecast skill of any SRH layer tested, although gains are comparatively modest for layers shallower than 0–500 m AGL. In Europe, the benefit from using shallower layers of SRH is even greater; the lower-tropospheric SRH is by far the most skillful ingredient there, far exceeding related composite parameters like the significant tornado parameter (which has negligible skill in Europe).
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5343
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Oriol Rodríguez;J. Bech
通讯作者：
J. Bech
使用无线电探空仪观测比较近场和远场超级单体流入环境
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
A. Wade;M. Coniglio;C. Ziegler
通讯作者：
C. Ziegler
上层剪切力变化对模拟超级电池的影响
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
R. Warren;H. Richter;H. Ramsay;S. Siems;M. Manton
通讯作者：
M. Manton
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
M. Kumjian;K. Lombardo
通讯作者：
M. Kumjian;K. Lombardo
为 Supercell 运动预测选择通用平均风
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Matthew J. Bunkers;D. A. Barber;Richard L. Thompson;R. edwards;J. Garner
通讯作者：
J. Garner