Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Chinese parturients.
Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Chinese parturients.
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中国产妇剖宫产后阴道分娩的预测
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-21488-6
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发表时间：
2018-02-15
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Long W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wen J;Song X;Ding H;Shen X;Shen R;Hu LQ;Long W
中国迫切需要更好地预测剖腹产后阴道分娩（VBAC），以应对二胎政策的挑战。我们的目的是在中国人群中验证广泛使用的 VBAC 预测模型（Grobman 模型）以及该模型的修改版本。在这项回顾性队列研究中，纳入了 444 名在中国南京进行过一次剖腹产且随后至少尝试过分娩的妇女。考虑的潜在 VBAC 预测变量包括 Grobman 的背景变量和五个新变量。总体而言，共有 370 名女性接受了 VBAC，成功率为 83.3%。新的背景变量“母亲身高”和“估计胎儿体重”被认为是 VBAC 的两个额外预测因子。 Grobman 模型的 AUC 为 0.831（95%CI = 0.775–0.886），而添加了两个新变量的修改模型的 AUC 为 0.857（敏感性 = 72.2%，特异性 = 83.8%）。然而，两个模型的AUC差异并不显着（Z = −1.69，P = 0.091）。我们证实格罗布曼的模型在中国人群中得到了接受。需要在中国人群中进一步研究补充了母亲身高和估计胎儿体重的修改模型。
There is an urgent need in China to better predict vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) to face the challenge of the second child policy. We aimed to validate a widely used VBAC prediction model (Grobman’s model) and a modified version of this model in a Chinese population. In this retrospective cohort study, 444 women with one cesarean delivery and at least one subsequent attempt for a trial of labor in Nanjing, China were included. The considered potential VBAC predictors included Grobman’s background variables and five new variables. Overall, a total of 370 women had VBAC, with a success rate of 83.3%. The new background variables “maternal height” and “estimated fetal weight” were considered as two additional predictors for VBAC. The AUC of Grobman’s model was 0.831 (95%CI = 0.775–0.886) while the AUC of our modified model with two new variables added was 0.857 (sensitivity = 72.2%, specificity = 83.8%). However, the difference between the AUC of the two models was not significant (Z = −1.69, P = 0.091). We confirmed that Grobman’s model was accepted in the Chinese population. A modified model that is supplemented with maternal height and estimated fetal weight needs to be further studied in the Chinese population.
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影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Yokoi A;Ishikawa K;Miyazaki K;Yoshida K;Furuhashi M;Tamakoshi K
通讯作者：
Tamakoshi K
影响因子：
7.2
作者：
Costantine, Maged M.;Fox, Karin;Saade, George
通讯作者：
Saade, George
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
McMahon, MJ;Luther, ER;Olshan, AF
通讯作者：
Olshan, AF
DOI：
10.1111/1471-0528.12508
发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Knight, H. E.;Gurol-Urganci, I.;Cromwell, D. A.
通讯作者：
Cromwell, D. A.
DOI：
10.1111/1471-0528.12605
发表时间：
2014-06-01
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Schoorel, E. N. C.;Melman, S.;Scheepers, H. C. J.
通讯作者：
Scheepers, H. C. J.