Longitudinal histories as predictors of future diagnoses of domestic abuse: modelling study.
Longitudinal histories as predictors of future diagnoses of domestic abuse: modelling study.
复制标题
纵向历史作为家庭虐待未来诊断的预测因素：建模研究。
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.b3677
复制
发表时间：
2009-09-29
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Mandl KD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reis BY;Kohane IS;Mandl KD
Objective To determine whether longitudinal data in patients’ historical records, commonly available in electronic health record systems, can be used to predict a patient’s future risk of receiving a diagnosis of domestic abuse. Design Bayesian models, known as intelligent histories, used to predict a patient’s risk of receiving a future diagnosis of abuse, based on the patient’s diagnostic history. Retrospective evaluation of the model’s predictions using an independent testing set. Setting A state-wide claims database covering six years of inpatient admissions to hospital, admissions for observation, and encounters in emergency departments. Population All patients aged over 18 who had at least four years between their earliest and latest visits recorded in the database (561 216 patients). Main outcome measures Timeliness of detection, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and area under the ROC curve. Results 1.04% (5829) of the patients met the narrow case definition for abuse, while 3.44% (19 303) met the broader case definition for abuse. The model achieved sensitive, specific (area under the ROC curve of 0.88), and early (10-30 months in advance, on average) prediction of patients’ future risk of receiving a diagnosis of abuse. Analysis of model parameters showed important differences between sexes in the risks associated with certain diagnoses. Conclusions Commonly available longitudinal diagnostic data can be useful for predicting a patient’s future risk of receiving a diagnosis of abuse. This modelling approach could serve as the basis for an early warning system to help doctors identify high risk patients for further screening.
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1532-5415.2003.51185.x
发表时间：
2003-04-01
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Coleman, EA
通讯作者：
Coleman, EA
DOI：
10.1197/jamia.m2206
发表时间：
2007-03-01
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Hripcsak, George;Sengupta, Soumitra;Green, Robert A.
通讯作者：
Green, Robert A.
影响因子：
6.2
作者：
Heron, SL;Thompson, MP;Kaslow, NJ
通讯作者：
Kaslow, NJ
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
ABBOTT, J;JOHNSON, R;LOWENSTEIN, SR
通讯作者：
LOWENSTEIN, SR
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hall, Amanda;Walton, Graham
通讯作者：
Walton, Graham