Epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and its implication for infectivity among patients in China, 1 January to 11 February 2020.
Epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and its implication for infectivity among patients in China, 1 January to 11 February 2020.
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2020年1月1日至2月11日中国患者中COVID-19的流行病学参数及其对感染性的影响
DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.40.2000250
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发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Fang LQ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lu QB;Zhang Y;Liu MJ;Zhang HY;Jalali N;Zhang AR;Li JC;Zhao H;Song QQ;Zhao TS;Zhao J;Liu HY;Du J;Teng AY;Zhou ZW;Zhou SX;Che TL;Wang T;Yang T;Guan XG;Peng XF;Wang YN;Zhang YY;Lv SM;Liu BC;Shi WQ;Zhang XA;Duan XG;Liu W;Yang Y;Fang LQ
背景在早期流行期间，严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）感染患者的疾病自然史仍不清楚。目的估计冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的流行病学参数，并评估潜伏期的相对传染性。方法利用大规模的COVID-19病例和潜在传播病例对数据库，估计SARS-CoV-2传播的4个流行病学参数的分布，并评估其在人口统计学、流行阶段和地理区域方面的异质性。我们进一步计算了感染性高峰的时间，并量化了潜伏期内继发感染的比例。结果中位潜伏期为7.2（95%可信区间（CI）：6.9 ~ 7.5）d。中位序列和世代间隔相似，分别为4.7（95% CI：4.2 - 5.3）和4.6（95% CI：4.2 - 5.1）天。< 18岁的儿科病例的潜伏期长于成人年龄组（p = 0.007）。中位潜伏期从1月25日之前的4.4天增加到1月31日之后的11.5天（p < 0.001），而中位连续（世代）间隔从1月25日之前的5.9（4.8）天缩短到1月25日之后的3.4（3.7）天。从症状发作到出院的中位时间也从1月22日之前的18.3天缩短到1月22日之后的14.1天。感染高峰期平均出现在症状出现前1天，潜伏期占传播的70%。结论潜伏期的高传染性导致世代间隔和系列间隔时间短，应采取积极的控制措施，如早期发现病例和隔离密切接触者。
Background The natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic. Aim Our objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period. Methods We estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period. Results The median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9‒7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases < 18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p = 0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p < 0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission. Conclusion The high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Sha J;Li Y;Chen X;Hu Y;Ren Y;Geng X;Zhang Z;Liu S
通讯作者：
Liu S