Monthly‐, medium‐, and short‐range flood warning: testing the limits of predictability
Monthly‐, medium‐, and short‐range flood warning: testing the limits of predictability
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每月、中期和短期洪水预警：测试可预测性的极限
DOI：
10.1002/met.140
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
A. Roo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Thielen;K. Bogner;F. Pappenberger;M. Kalas;M. D. Medico;A. Roo
本文描述了一个案例研究，通过将预报与多种空间和时间分辨率相结合，探索洪水的可预测性的限度。月度、中期和短期数值天气预报(NWP)数据被输入欧洲洪水警报系统，以应对2007年10月影响罗马尼亚河流的洪水事件。数值预报资料包括来自不同天气预报模式的不同空间分辨率和提前期的集合和确定性预报。结果从数值预报的各个组成部分以及集合的角度进行了探讨。在这个案例研究中，月度天气预报组合对预警的贡献微乎其微，尽管早在事件发生前3周就给出了一些迹象。为期15天的中期天气预报提前9至11天发出洪水预警信息。当事件越来越近，并且在较高分辨率的集合预报可以捕捉到的范围内时，事件的空间范围的预报比中期预报的精度高得多。对于有观测资料的站点，采用一种新的后处理方法计算河流流量，该方法能够对时间变化进行修正，提高定量预报的精度。这项研究说明了预报和后处理的结合如何将早期洪水预警的提前时间缩短2至3天，同时在短期内保持可靠。版权所有(C)2009皇家气象学会
This paper describes a case study that explores the limits of the predictability of floods, by combining forecasts with multiple spatial and temporal resolutions. Monthly, medium‐ and short range numerical weather prediction (NWP) data are input to the European Flood Alert System for a flood event that affected rivers in Romania in October 2007. The NWP data comprise ensembles and deterministic forecasts of different spatial resolutions and lead times from different weather prediction models. Results are explored in terms of the individual NWP components as well as the ensemble. In this case study, ensembles of monthly weather forecasts contribute only marginally to the early warning, although some indication is given as early as 3 weeks before the event. The 15‐day medium‐range weather forecasts produce early flood warning information 9 to 11 days in advance. As the event draws nearer and is in range to be captured by the higher resolution ensemble forecasts, the spatial extent of the event is forecast with much more precision than with the medium‐range. A novel post‐processing method for the calculation of river discharge is applied to those stations where observations are available, and is able to correct for time‐shifts and to improve the quantitative forecast. The study illustrates how a combination of forecasts and post‐processing improves the lead time for early flood warnings by 2 to 3 days, while remaining reliable also in the short‐range. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Cloke, Hannah L.;Pappenberger, Florian
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, Florian