The formation, character and changing nature of mesoscale convective systems
The formation, character and changing nature of mesoscale convective systems
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中尺度对流系统的形成、特征和变化性质
DOI：
10.1038/s43017-020-0057-7
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
Rasmussen, Kristen L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schumacher, Russ S.;Rasmussen, Kristen L.
中尺度对流系统（MCS）描述了热带和中纬度地区有组织的雷暴群，它们的面积达数千平方公里。虽然认识到这一点已有世纪之久，但卫星和雷达观测以及大气模型模拟的出现使人们对这一问题的认识有所提高。在这篇综述中，我们综合了当前有关MCS形成、气候学特征、灾害性天气、预测能力和人为变暖的预测变化的知识。在典型的深层湿对流过程（水分、升力和不稳定性）和垂直风切变的驱动下，MCS的形成优先发生在这些成分存在的地方，并可以通过大规模上升和它们产生的冷池来维持。MCS还产生危险天气，包括极端降雨，洪水，derechos，有时还有龙卷风和冰雹，所有这些都具有重大的经济和社会影响。鉴于MCSs也产生了很大一部分的暖季降雨，有短期预报和长期预测的迫切需要，目前的挑战不足的模型分辨率。然而，随着模拟能力的不断提高，以及更大的理论基础，有人建议，在气候变暖的情况下，MCS的频率和强度可能会增加。反过来，进一步的建模进展有助于更好地了解监控监从生命周期到影响的特点。
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) describe organized groupings of thunderstorms in the tropics and mid-latitudes that span thousands of square kilometres. While recognized for over a century, the advent of satellite and radar observations, as well as atmospheric-model simulations, has brought about their increased understanding. In this Review, we synthesize current knowledge on MCS formation, climatological characteristics, hazardous weather, predictive capacity and projected changes with anthropogenic warming. Driven by typical deep moist convective processes (moisture, lift and instability) and vertical wind shear, MCS formation occurs preferentially in locations where these ingredients are present and can be maintained by large-scale ascent and the cold pools that they produce. MCSs also generate hazardous weather, including extreme rainfall, flooding, derechos and, sometimes, tornadoes and hail, all of which have substantial economic and societal impacts. Given that MCSs also produce a large fraction of warm-season rainfall, there is critical need for both short-term forecasts and long-term projections, presently challenged by inadequate model resolution. Yet, with continually improving modelling capabilities, as well as greater theoretical basis, it is suggested that MCSs might increase in frequency and intensity under a warming climate. Further modelling progress, in turn, offers improved understanding of MCS characteristics, from their life cycle through to impacts.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.5880
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
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作者：
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