COVID-19: risk factors for severe cases of the Delta variant.
COVID-19: risk factors for severe cases of the Delta variant.
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DOI：
10.18632/aging.203655
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发表时间：
2021-10-28
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lei M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu K;Lin L;Liang Y;Shao X;Hu Z;Luo H;Lei M
背景：2021年4月以来，SARS-CoV-2（B.1.167）Delta变异株在全球范围内肆虐。最近，这种变种在中国广州蔓延。我们的目的是描述广州地区Delta变异重型病例的临床特征和危险因素。方法：对144例Delta变异型患者的临床资料进行分析，并对重症组和非重症组的资料进行比较。采用Logistic回归和考克斯多因素回归分析方法，探讨重症病例的危险因素。结果：Delta变异的严重程度为11.1%。年龄每增加1岁（OR，1.089; 95%CI，1.035 - 1.147; P = 0.001）和总胆红素每增加1 μ mol/L（OR，1.198; 95%CI，1.021 - 1.406; P = 0.039）是重症病例的危险因素。此外，当年龄大于58.5岁时，进展为严重病例的风险增加了13.444倍和3.922倍（HR，13.444; 95% CI，2.989 - 60.480; P = 0.001）或总胆红素水平大于7.23 μ mol/L（HR，3.922; 95% CI，1.260 - 12.207; P = 0.018）。结论：年龄较大和总胆红素升高是广州地区Delta变异体重症病例的独立危险因素，尤其是年龄大于58.5岁或总胆红素水平大于7.23 μ mol/L的病例。
Background: Since April 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.167) Delta variant has been rampant worldwide. Recently, this variant has spread in Guangzhou, China. Our objective was to characterize the clinical features and risk factors of severe cases of the Delta variant in Guangzhou. Methods: A total of 144 patients with the Delta variant were enrolled, and the data between the severe and non-severe groups were compared. Logistic regression methods and Cox multivariate regression analysis were used to investigate the risk factors of severe cases. Results: The severity of the Delta variant was 11.1%. Each 1-year increase in age (OR, 1.089; 95% CI, 1.035–1.147; P = 0.001) and each 1-μmol/L increase in total bilirubin (OR, 1.198; 95% CI, 1.021–1.406; P = 0.039) were risk factors for severe cases. Moreover, the risk of progression to severe cases increased 13.444-fold and 3.922-fold when the age was greater than 58.5 years (HR, 13.444; 95% CI, 2.989–60.480; P = 0.001) or the total bilirubin level was greater than 7.23 μmol/L (HR, 3.922; 95% CI, 1.260–12.207; P = 0.018), respectively. Conclusion: Older age and elevated total bilirubin were independent risk factors for severe cases of the Delta variant in Guangzhou, especially if the age was greater than 58.5 years or the total bilirubin level was greater than 7.23 μmol/L.
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