Improving seasonal forecasting through tropical ocean bias corrections
Improving seasonal forecasting through tropical ocean bias corrections
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通过热带海洋偏差修正改进季节性预报
DOI：
10.1002/qj.2869
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Mulholland D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mulholland D
在大气-海洋耦合预报的背景下，经常会讨论到巨震，但它的探测仍然是难以捉摸的。在这篇文章中，初始化冲击在季节预报中的存在被清楚地确定在热带温跃层的变化中。这里研究的具体冲击源是使用偏置校正程序来解释海洋初始化过程中赤道风应力强迫的误差。结果表明，在预报开始时突然去除偏差校正导致上层海洋的快速调整，产生了至少3个月留在系统中的冲击。相比之下，在20天内逐渐去除修正项，大大减少了初始化冲击。证据是大幅增加海表温度（SST）的季节性预报技能，在大约3-7个月的提前期，当逐步删除的方法是使用。在技能的增益高达0.05，作为测量的异常相关系数的SST在Niño-4地区，被发现，使用一个适度的后报集，涵盖四个季节的开始日期。结果表明，改进耦合初始化，以减少冲击可能会大大有利于季节性预测。
Initialization shock is often discussed in the context of coupled atmosphere–ocean forecasting, but its detection has remained elusive. In this article, the presence of initialization shock in seasonal forecasts is clearly identified in the variability of the tropical thermocline. The specific source of shock studied here is the use of a bias correction procedure to account for errors in equatorial wind stress forcing during ocean initialization. It is shown that the abrupt removal of the bias correction at the beginning of the forecast leads to rapid adjustments in the upper ocean, creating a shock that remains in the system for at least 3 months. By contrast, gradual removal of the correction term, over 20 days, greatly reduces the initialization shock. Evidence is presented of substantial increases in sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal forecast skill, at around 3–7 months' lead time, when the gradual removal approach is used. Gains in skill of up to 0.05, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient for SST in the Niño‐4 region, are found, using a modest hindcast set covering four seasonal start dates. The results show that improvements in coupled initialization aimed at reducing shocks may considerably benefit seasonal forecasting.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
D. E. Harrison;B. Giese
通讯作者：
B. Giese
初始化程序对海洋-大气耦合模型预测能力的影响
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Iuliia Polkova;A. Köhl;D. Stammer
通讯作者：
D. Stammer
海洋模型中的气候漂移与简单、完美匹配的大气相结合
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Rahmstorf
通讯作者：
S. Rahmstorf
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Shi, W.;Schaller, N.;MacLeod, D.;Palmer, T. N.;Weisheimer, A.
通讯作者：
Weisheimer, A.