Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern
Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern
复制标题
测试普通燕鸥生存的年龄特异性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Cam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Nisbet;E. Cam
生活史理论中的许多努力都致力于研究生活史特征对年龄的依赖性，特别是衰老现象及其演变。尽管衰老的存活率下降在人类、家养动物和实验动物中都有充分记录，但有关其在野生动物物种中发生和重要性的证据仍然有限且模棱两可。最近的几篇论文表明，方法问题可能会导致这一问题，并鼓励研究人员改进抽样设计，并使用最近开发的捕获-标记-再捕获数据建模方法来分析数据。在此，我们报告了对美国东北部已知年龄的普通燕鸥（Sterna hirundo）进行的为期三年、两个地点的标记重新捕获研究。该研究是一项长期生态研究的一部分，在该研究中，每年都会对大量雏鸡进行圈养，持续时间超过 25 年。我们使用了一系列模型来检验年龄对生存概率影响的假设。我们还测试了性别对生存的可能影响。该研究的横断面设计（一年的参数估计）避免了年龄和时间影响的可能混淆。这项研究是在其中一个研究地点被殖民并且数量迅速增加的时候进行的。我们检测到了站点之间的双向运动，并估计了可以对其进行建模的当年的运动概率。我们还获得了有关从我们的研究区域向更远的地点移民的有限数据。我们没有发现任何证据表明存活率取决于性别或年龄，除了最小的鸟类（2-3 岁）的存活率较低之外。尽管该研究包含大量鸟类（1599 只已知年龄的鸟类，总共 2367 只），但对生存概率估计的置信限制很大，特别是对于最年长的年龄组，因此无法检测到晚年生存率的轻微下降。此外，本研究的横断面设计意味着个体生存概率的下降（精算衰老）可能被个体生存概率的异质性（死亡率选择）所掩盖。这强调需要开发能够分离这两种现象的建模工具，该工具在重新捕获概率小于 1 的现场条件下有效。
Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
CAREY, JR;LIEDO, P;VAUPEL, JW
通讯作者：
VAUPEL, JW