Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles.
Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.01.054
复制
发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Sun, Kang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shen, Huizhong;Tao, Shu;Wang, Rong;Wang, Bin;Shen, Guofeng;Li, Wei;Su, Shenshen;Huang, Ye;Wang, Xilong;Liu, Wenxin;Li, Bengang;Sun, Kang
关键词：
机动车排放是城市地区多环芳烃（PAH）最重要的来源。文献报道的机动车单个PAHs排放因子相差4到5个数量级，导致排放清单的不确定性很高。本研究基于50多年来在16个国家测量的数千个EFPAH，对影响机动车PAHs（EFPAH）排放因子的关键因素进行了定量评估。结果用于制定机动车多环芳烃全球排放清单。研究发现，国家和车型年份是影响 EFPAH 的最重要因素，可以使用以人均国内生产总值（购买力平价）作为唯一自变量的单变量回归模型进行量化。平均而言，该模型可以解释对数转换 EFPAH 中 29% 的变化，这相当于算术尺度上总体不确定性降低了 90%。该模型用于预测1971年至2030年期间世界各国机动车辆的EFPAH和随后的PAH排放量。估计全球排放量在1978年达到峰值约101 Gg，此后由于发达国家的排放控制而有所下降。 1990年以来，由于中国和其他发展中国家能源消耗的加速，年排放量再次上升。随着发展中国家采取越来越严格的控制措施，全球多环芳烃排放量目前已超过第二个峰值。预计排放量将从2010年的77Gg减少到2030年的42Gg。
Emission from motor vehicles is the most important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas. Emission factors of individual PAHs for motor vehicles reported in the literature varied 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission inventory. In this study, key factors affecting emission factors of PAHs (EFPAH) for motor vehicles were evaluated quantitatively based on thousands of EFPAH measured in 16 countries for over 50 years. The result was used to develop a global emission inventory of PAHs from motor vehicles. It was found that country and vehicle model year are the most important factors affecting EFPAH, which can be quantified using a monovariate regression model with per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity) as a sole independent variable. On average, 29% of variation in log-transformed EFPAH could be explained by the model, which was equivalent to 90% reduction in overall uncertainty on arithmetic scale. The model was used to predict EFPAH and subsequently PAH emissions from motor vehicles for various countries in the world during a period from 1971 to 2030. It was estimated that the global emission reached its peak value of approximate 101 Gg in 1978 and decreased afterwards due to emission control in developed countries. The annual emission picked up again since 1990 owing to accelerated energy consumption in China and other developing countries. With more and more rigid control measures taken in the developing world, global emission of PAHs is currently passing its second peak. It was predicted that the emission would decrease from 77 Gg in 2010 to 42 Gg in 2030.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Galarneau, Elisabeth;Makar, Paul A.;Diamond, Miriam L.
通讯作者：
Diamond, Miriam L.
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Kado, NY;Okamoto, RA;Zafonte, L
通讯作者：
Zafonte, L
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Paturel, L;Saber, AI;Joumard, R
通讯作者：
Joumard, R
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Schauer, C;Niessner, R;Pöschl, U
通讯作者：
Pöschl, U
影响因子：
5
作者：
Bergvall, Christoffer;Westerholm, Roger
通讯作者：
Westerholm, Roger