Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model.
Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Iwahana G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yokohata T;Saito K;Takata K;Nitta T;Satoh Y;Hajima T;Sueyoshi T;Iwahana G
迄今为止，由于涉及冻土的过程中普遍存在不确定性，全球气候模式对永久冻土的处理已经简化。在这项研究中，我们通过考虑土壤的一些相关物理性质，如土壤冻结引起的热物理性质的变化，改进了在最先进的气候模型中永久冻土过程的建模。因此，全球地表模型的改进版本能够通过增加冬季土壤水分的冻结，在永久冻土区的南部极限重现更真实的永久冻土区分布。对永久冻土过程的改进模拟也对未来的预测产生了重大影响。使用常规公式，在RCP8.5情景下，到2100年多年冻土区的预测累积减少约为60%（多模式集合的不确定性范围为40-80%），而使用改进公式，减少约为35%（20-50%）。我们的研究结果表明，在全球气候模式中改进对永久冻土过程的处理对于确保更可靠的未来预测非常重要。
To date, the treatment of permafrost in global climate models has been simplified due to the prevailing uncertainties in the processes involving frozen ground. In this study, we improved the modeling of permafrost processes in a state-of-the-art climate model by taking into account some of the relevant physical properties of soil such as changes in the thermophysical properties due to soil freezing. As a result, the improved version of the global land surface model was able to reproduce a more realistic permafrost distribution at the southern limit of the permafrost area by increasing the freezing of soil moisture in winter. The improved modeling of permafrost processes also had a significant effect on future projections. Using the conventional formulation, the predicted cumulative reduction of the permafrost area by year 2100 was approximately 60% (40–80% range of uncertainty from a multi-model ensemble) in the RCP8.5 scenario, while with the improved formulation, the reduction was approximately 35% (20–50%). Our results indicate that the improved treatment of permafrost processes in global climate models is important to ensuring more reliable future projections.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Lawrence, David M.;Slater, Andrew G.;Nicolsky, Dmitry J.
通讯作者：
Nicolsky, Dmitry J.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Bentsen, M.;Bethke, I.;Kristjansson, J. E.
通讯作者：
Kristjansson, J. E.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Koven, Charles D.;Riley, William J.;Stern, Alex
通讯作者：
Stern, Alex
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
MacDougall, Andrew H.;Knutti, Reto
通讯作者：
Knutti, Reto
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
MacDougall, Andrew H.;Zickfeld, Kirsten;Matthews, H. Damon
通讯作者：
Matthews, H. Damon