Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK
Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK
复制标题
北大西洋喷气式飞机未来的变化以及对英国的相关影响的故事情节
DOI：
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Sutton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Harvey;E. Hawkins;R. Sutton
英国的气候预测表现出很大的不确定性，这种不确定性是一个障碍，以强大和及时的决策适应和减缓政策问题。很大一部分的不确定性与区域大气环流的动力学变化，而不是热力学变化，这是更好地约束模式模拟。对英国来说，特别重要的是北大西洋急流在未来几十年内将发生多大程度的变化，以及这将对该地区的天气和气候产生何种影响。在这篇文章中，我们建议使用基于喷气式飞机的故事情节来评估和传达英国气候预测的不确定性，其中每次影响的变化都明确取决于北大西洋喷气式飞机的变化。这种方法提供了一个框架，用于评估与英国未来一系列可能的气候结果相关的影响，包括当前一代气候模型中可能无法很好地代表的结果，并用于传达这些潜在的结果。我们为夏季和冬季以及2°C和4°C的全球变暖水平构建了一组简单而有用的未来喷气式飞机故事情节，并通过评估每个喷气式飞机故事情节对英国降水未来变化的影响来说明该方法的实用性。在这样做的过程中，我们表明，喷气机和英国降水之间的关系是一致的观测年际变化和预测的变化。这一发现增加了我们预测与每个故事情节相关的英国降水变化的信心。
Climate projections for the UK exhibit substantial uncertainty, and this uncertainty is a hindrance to robust and timely decision making on both adaptation and mitigation policy issues. A large part of the uncertainty is associated with dynamical changes of the regional atmospheric circulation rather than thermodynamic changes which are better constrained by model simulations. Of particular importance for the UK is the extent to which the North Atlantic jet will change over coming decades and the impact this will have on weather and climate in the region. In this article, we propose the use of jet‐based storylines for assessing and communicating uncertainty in climate projections for the UK, wherein changes in each impact are explicitly conditioned on changes in the North Atlantic jet. This approach provides a framework for evaluating the impacts associated with a range of plausible future climate outcomes for the UK, including outcomes that may not be well represented in the current generation of climate models, and for communicating these potential outcomes. We construct a simple yet useful set of future jet storylines for both summer and winter and for 2°C and 4°C global warming levels and illustrate the utility of the approach by evaluating the impact of each jet storyline on future changes in UK precipitation. In doing so, we demonstrate that the relationships between the jet and UK precipitation are consistent between observed interannual variability and projected changes. This finding increases our confidence in projecting changes in UK precipitation associated with each storyline.
DOI：
10.1002/wcc.150
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
影响因子：
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作者：
J. Pinto;C. Raible
通讯作者：
J. Pinto;C. Raible