Does Migration Cause Extreme Voting
Does Migration Cause Extreme Voting
复制标题
移民会导致极端投票吗
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Thiemo Fetzer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sascha O. Becker;Thiemo Fetzer
2004年，8个东欧国家（加上塞浦路斯和马耳他）加入欧洲联盟（欧盟），但由于欧盟关于劳动力自由流动的规定，人们担心东欧工人会大规模移徙，这给欧盟蒙上了阴影。虽然许多欧盟国家对劳动力流动施加了临时限制，但联合王国没有。我们的文件显示，加入欧盟后，超过100万人（约100万人）。3%的英国工作年龄人口）从东欧移民到英国。在接收大量东欧移民的地方，英国独立党（UKIP）在欧洲议会选举中的得票率略有增加，但在统计上有显著增加。我们认为，这些估计可能是移民对整体反欧情绪影响的下限。我们发现，移民潮降低了工资分配底端的工资，并增加了公共服务和住房的压力。
The 2004 accession of 8 Eastern European countries (plus Cyprus and Malta) to the European Union (EU) was overshadowed by feared mass migration of workers from Eastern Europe due to the EU’s rules on free mobility of labour. While many incumbent EU countries imposed temporary restrictions on labour mobility, the United Kingdom did not. We document that following EU accession more than 1 million people (ca. 3% of the UK working age population) migrated from Eastern Europe to the UK. Places that received large numbers of migrants from Eastern Europe saw small, but statistically significant increases in the vote shares for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in elections to the European Parliament. We argue that these estimates are likely lower bounds of the effect of migration on overall anti-European sentiment. We show that the migration wave lowered wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution and contributed to increased pressure on public services and housing.
对右翼民粹主义政党的支持动态进行建模：英国独立党的案例
DOI：
10.1080/17457289.2016.1146286
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
影响因子：
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作者：
Clarke H
通讯作者：
Clarke H