Perceptions of climate-related risk in Southeast Asia’s power sector
Perceptions of climate-related risk in Southeast Asia’s power sector
复制标题
东南亚电力行业对气候相关风险的看法
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Cannelle Gueguen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Johnson;P. du Pont;Cannelle Gueguen
鉴于缓解气候变化的国际压力越来越大，人们对气候影响的担忧也越来越多，目前对东南亚电力部门继续投资化石燃料的预期似乎令人困惑。本文探讨了电力行业投资者如何看待气候相关风险，以及他们如何将这些风险纳入投资决策。在此过程中，我们试图解释为什么东南亚国家正在制定计划，投资者正在继续投资于以化石燃料为主的发电，而牺牲了可再生或清洁发电选项，以及如何将投资从化石燃料发电大幅转移到该地区的可再生选项。对17个行业专家访谈的分析表明，在投资者决策中整合气候相关风险的必要性与东南亚电力行业目前整合和解决这些风险的方式之间存在巨大差距。与气候有关的风险似乎不是一个重要因素，或因其他关切而被忽视，或只是表面上纳入决策。这项研究的结果表明，迫切需要针对该地区能源部门投资者采取行动，以揭示与气候相关的风险，分享有关风险可能性和严重程度的信息，明确说明10-15年时间框架内搁浅资产的可能性，并鼓励就这些关键问题进行透明，开放和尊重的对话和讨论。东南亚的电力行业投资者在做出投资决策时，通常不会将气候相关风险作为重要因素。既定惯例和思维模式的主导地位导致忽略了对与气候有关的风险的深入分析，并扭曲了对可再生能源投资风险的认识。通过公认的投资渠道承诺大笔资金的压力造成了对继续为大型化石燃料项目供资的路径依赖。金融治理机制在报告和减轻气候相关风险方面的合规要求一般很低。需要采取政策和监管行动，以提高对气候相关风险的认识，挖掘搁浅资产的潜力，并为投资可再生能源创造机会。
ABSTRACT Given the growing international pressure to mitigate climate change and increasing fears around climate impacts, current expectations of continued investment in fossil fuels in Southeast Asia’s power sector appear puzzling. This paper explores how power sector investors perceive climate-related risks and how they factor these risks into investment decision-making. In doing so, we seek to explain why countries in Southeast Asia are making plans for – and investors are continuing to invest in – predominantly fossil fuel-based power generation at the expense of renewable or clean generation options, and what it would take to substantially shift investment from fossil fuel-based generation into renewable options in the region. Analysis of 17 interviews with industry experts suggests that there is a significant gap between the need to integrate climate-related risks within investor decision-making, and the way these risks are currently being integrated and addressed in the Southeast Asia power sector. Climate-related risk appears to be either not a significant factor, ignored in light of other concerns, or only superficially integrated into decision-making. The results of this research point to an urgent need for action targeted at energy-sector investors in the region in order to shed light on climate-related risks, share information on the likelihood and magnitude of risks, lay out clearly the potential for stranded assets in a 10–15-year time frame, and encourage transparent, open and respectful dialogue and discussion on these critical issues. Key policy insights Power sector investors in Southeast Asia generally do not consider climate-related risks as a significant factor when making investment decisions. Dominance of established routines and mindsets lead to omission of in-depth analysis of climate-related risks and skewed perceptions of risk in renewable energy investments. Pressure to commit large sums through recognized investment channels creates path dependency towards continued financing of large-scale fossil fuel projects. Financial governance mechanisms generally have very low compliance requirements regarding reporting on and mitigating climate-related risks. Policy and regulatory action is needed to raise awareness of climate-related risks, lay out potential for stranded assets and create opportunities for investing in renewable energy.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Mercure, J. -F.;Pollitt, H.;Knobloch, F.
通讯作者：
Knobloch, F.