How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?
How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?
复制标题
模拟的末次冰期最高热带温度对平衡气候敏感性的限制程度如何？
DOI：
10.1002/2015gl064903
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hopcroft P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hopcroft P
以往的工作表明，热带地表气温和平衡气候敏感性（ECS）在PMIP（古气候模拟相互比较项目）第2阶段模型模拟末次冰期最大期（LGM）之间的显着相关性。这意味着重建的LGM冷却在该地区可以提供有关气候系统ECS值的信息。我们分析了新的模拟结果的LGM进行耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP5）和PMIP第3阶段的一部分。这些结果表明LGM热带冷却和ECS之间没有一致的关系。辐射强迫和反馈分析表明，一些因素是负责这种脱钩，其中一些是有关的植被和气溶胶反馈。虽然确定的几个过程是LGM特定的，不影响升高的CO2模拟，这种分析表明，一个新的CMIP 5模型表现在一个定性的方式与旧的合奏相比，在一个领域。结果表明，所谓的地球系统成分，如植被和气溶胶，可能对LGM模拟中的气候响应产生重大影响，这应该在未来的分析中考虑在内。
Previous work demonstrated a significant correlation between tropical surface air temperature and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) phase 2 model simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM). This implies that reconstructed LGM cooling in this region could provide information about the climate system ECS value. We analyze results from new simulations of the LGM performed as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and PMIP phase 3. These results show no consistent relationship between the LGM tropical cooling and ECS. A radiative forcing and feedback analysis shows that a number of factors are responsible for this decoupling, some of which are related to vegetation and aerosol feedbacks. While several of the processes identified are LGM specific and do not impact on elevated CO2simulations, this analysis demonstrates one area where the newer CMIP5 models behave in a qualitatively different manner compared with the older ensemble. The results imply that so‐called Earth System components such as vegetation and aerosols can have a significant impact on the climate response in LGM simulations, and this should be taken into account in future analyses.
末次盛冰期模型数据表面温度比较的视角
影响因子：
4
作者：
J. Annan;J. Hargreaves
通讯作者：
J. Hargreaves
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Hargreaves, J. C.;Annan, J. D.;Abe-Ouchi, A.
通讯作者：
Abe-Ouchi, A.