A manifesto for predictive conservation
A manifesto for predictive conservation
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预测性保护宣言
DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.059
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
E. Milner‐Gulland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Travers;Matthew J. Selinske;A. Nuno;A. Serban;F. Mancini;Tatsiana Barychka;E. Bush;Ranaivo A. Rasolofoson;J. Watson;E. Milner‐Gulland
如果解决生物多样性丧失及其对人类福祉的影响的努力要取得成功，保护工作就必须向其他领域学习，例如军事研究、公共卫生和金融，这些领域使用预测方法来预见冲击，并在面对不确定性时先发制人。尽管使用预测模型来理解生态系统和人类干扰的动态有着悠久的历史，但环保主义者在设计和实施行为干预时并没有系统地应用预测方法。这是一个重要的遗漏，因为人类行为是当前广泛生物多样性丧失的根本原因。在这里，我们批判性地评估了预测方法如何改变保护科学家和从业者计划和实施与野生动物一起生活的人的社会和行为改变的方式。我们的预测性保护宣言认识到社会生态系统是动态的、不确定的和复杂的，并呼吁保护主义者采用有效保护所需要的前瞻性方法。
If efforts to tackle biodiversity loss and its impact on human wellbeing are to be successful, conservation must learn from other fields which use predictive methods to foresee shocks and pre-empt their impacts in the face of uncertainty, such as military studies, public health and finance. Despite a long history of using predictive models to understand the dynamics of ecological systems and human disturbance, conservationists do not systematically apply predictive approaches when designing and implementing behavioural interventions. This is an important omission because human behaviour is the underlying cause of current widespread biodiversity loss. Here, we critically assess how predictive approaches can transform the way conservation scientists and practitioners plan for and implement social and behavioural change among people living with wildlife. Our manifesto for predictive conservation recognises that social-ecological systems are dynamic, uncertain and complex, and calls on conservationists to embrace the forward-thinking approach which effective conservation requires.
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.12887
发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
The Journal of applied ecology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Milner-Gulland EJ;Shea K
通讯作者：
Shea K