Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.
Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-21710-6
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发表时间：
2021-03-09
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Yu H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu S;Wang W;Wang Y;Litvinova M;Luo K;Ren L;Sun Q;Chen X;Zeng G;Li J;Liang L;Deng Z;Zheng W;Li M;Yang H;Guo J;Wang K;Chen X;Liu Z;Yan H;Shi H;Chen Z;Zhou Y;Sun K;Vespignani A;Viboud C;Gao L;Ajelli M;Yu H
驱动SARS-CoV-2传播的几个机制仍不清楚。基于湖南省1178名潜在SARS-CoV-2感染者和15648名接触者的个人记录，估计了关键传播参数。平均产生时间估计为5.7天（中位数：5.5,IQR: 4.5, 6.8）天，传染性在症状出现前1.8天达到高峰，95%的传播事件发生在症状出现前8.8天至9.5天之间。大多数传播事件发生在症状前阶段（59.2%）。随着年龄的增长，SARS-CoV-2的易感性增加，但不同年龄组之间、有症状和无症状个体之间的传播性差异不显著。家庭中的接触者和接触第一代病例与较高的传播几率有关。我们的研究结果支持了儿童可以有效传播SARS-CoV-2的假设，并强调了症状前和无症状传播如何阻碍控制工作。需要详细了解COVID-19流行病学知识，以便为公共卫生应对提供信息。作者利用大规模接触者追踪数据对关键参数进行了实证估计，结果表明易感性随年龄增长而增加，但传播率变化不显著。
Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.7 (median: 5.5, IQR: 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, with 95% of transmission events occurring between 8.8 days before and 9.5 days after symptom onset. Most transmission events occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to infection increases with age, while transmissibility is not significantly different between age groups and between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Contacts in households and exposure to first-generation cases are associated with higher odds of transmission. Our findings support the hypothesis that children can effectively transmit SARS-CoV-2 and highlight how pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can hinder control efforts. Detailed knowledge of COVID-19 epidemiology is needed to inform public health responses. Here, the authors use large-scale contact tracing data to provide empirical estimates of key parameters, and show that susceptibility increases with age but transmissibility does not vary significantly.
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影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
Feng, Zijian
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa0905498
发表时间：
2009-12-31
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Cauchemez S;Donnelly CA;Reed C;Ghani AC;Fraser C;Kent CK;Finelli L;Ferguson NM
通讯作者：
Ferguson NM
影响因子：
19
作者：
Ganyani, Tapiwa;Kremer, Cecile;Hens, Niel
通讯作者：
Hens, Niel
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Liu, Zhirong;Chu, Ruilin;Wu, Jiabing
通讯作者：
Wu, Jiabing
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.