Natural disasters and deterrence of economic innovation: a case of temporary job losses by Hurricane Sandy
Natural disasters and deterrence of economic innovation: a case of temporary job losses by Hurricane Sandy
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自然灾害与经济创新的阻碍：桑迪飓风造成的临时失业案例
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Changkeun Park
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
JiYoung Park;Minsu Son;Changkeun Park
从经济上量化许多自然灾害是全球关注的问题。即使在美国，每年也会经历自然灾害造成的经济损失。突如其来的自然灾害导致各种经济和企业管理中断。特别是，成熟经济体中复杂的产业间和区域间联系可能会受到灾难的更大影响，因此，经济和商业损失不仅需要计算企业在中断期间的直接、实际损失价值，而且还需要计算本不会发生的间接、潜在损失价值。在美国，2005年8月袭击墨西哥湾的两次飓风造成的严重经济损失被载入史册，但这种飓风造成的经济损失仍在经历中。发生在2012年的飓风桑迪被记录为有史以来摧毁美国领土的最大风暴之一。飓风对地铁建筑环境和自然环境系统造成的破坏表明，飓风和风暴潮对纽约市和长岛地区是多么脆弱。这立即引发了一场新的讨论，即在该地区的海岸线周围修建海岸屏障，以期将未来类似事件的破坏性风险降至最低。在这次讨论中没有认真探讨的一个问题是如何更广泛和更准确地说明经济损失。大多数估计经济损失的研究依赖于政府报告，这些报告主要关注直接受损的建筑损失的规模，或对已经受损地区未来影响的猜测。然而，在考虑日益复杂的产业间和区域间经济联系时，考虑到间接关联的连锁反应在市场经济中很重要，因为从经济损失中恢复需要了解损失的企业生产的弹性路径。这项研究提供了一种程序，根据国家州际经济模型(NIEMO)估计一种相互关联的经济损失，并使用人口普查数据估计飓风桑迪造成的前4天的临时失业。通过追踪桑迪从佛罗里达到新罕布夏州的移动路径发现，桑迪主要给纽约市和长岛地区带来了另一场悲剧，在4天内达到28亿美元，其中99%的损失发生在桑迪的最后一天。此外，根据NIEMO的分析，国家影响达到了100亿美元的损失。可以支持各种缓解和预防政策的技术创新将减少经济损失，加速恢复美国经济的正常状态。
Quantifying many natural disasters economically is a global concern. Even in the U.S., economic damages stemming from natural disasters are experienced annually. Unexpected natural disasters result in various economic and business management disruptions. Especially, complex inter-industrial and inter-regional connections in established economies may experience much larger impacts by a disaster, and hence, the economic and business losses need to count not only the direct, actual lost value of business during the disrupted period, but also the indirect, latent lost value that would not have occurred. In the U.S., severe economic damages generated by the two hurricanes that hit the Gulf of Mexico in August 2005 were recorded in the history; however, this hurricane-generated economic loss is still being experienced. Hurricane Sandy occurred in 2012 is recorded as one of the largest storms ever to mash American territory. The hurricane-caused disruptions of metro built environments and natural environmental systems demonstrated how fragile New York City (NYC) and Long Island areas are from hurricanes and storm surges. This promptly generated a new discussion of building coastal barriers surrounding the shorelines of the areas, expecting to minimize the destructive risk from a similar event in the future. An issue that was not seriously explored in this discussion is how to account for economic damages more extensively and accurately. Majority studies of estimating economic damages rely on governmental reports that mostly focus on the magnitude of building losses directly damaged or on speculations about future impacts on the area already damaged. However, when considering inter-industrial and inter-regional economic connections which are becoming more complicated, accounting for the indirectly connected ripple impacts is important in the market economies because recovery from economic damages requires an understanding of resilient paths of the lost business production. This study provides a procedure to estimate a type of interconnected economic damages based on the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) and the temporarily lost jobs using Census data during the first 4 days caused by Hurricane Sandy. By tracing Sandy’s moving path from Florida to New Hampshire, it was found that Sandy had brought another tragedy mainly to the NYC and Long Island areas, reaching $2.8 billion in 4 days with 99% of the loss occurring in the last day of Sandy. Furthermore, the national impacts attained $10 billion losses according to the NIEMO analysis. Technological innovation that may support various mitigation and prevention policies would reduce the economic losses, expediting recovery to the normal status of U.S. economy.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Sippel, Sebastian;Otto, Friederike E. L.
通讯作者：
Otto, Friederike E. L.