Superiority of Mild Interventions against COVID-19 on Public Health and Economic Measures.
Superiority of Mild Interventions against COVID-19 on Public Health and Economic Measures.
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DOI：
10.3390/jpm11080719
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发表时间：
2021-07-26
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kodama K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Niwa M;Hara Y;Matsuo Y;Narita H;Lim Y;Sengoku S;Kodama K
(1)背景：在新冠肺炎全球传播期间，日本一直是感染人数保持在相对较低水平的顶级国家之一，尽管日本实施的机构干预措施有限，而且人口密度很高。这项研究调查了有限干预政策如何影响新冠肺炎背景下的公共卫生和经济状况，旨在了解在人口稠密地区有效和可持续地应对新传染病的措施。(2)方法：采用系统动力学方法。使用东京都地区的数据集进行了定性因果循环分析以及存量和定量流动模型分析。(3)结果：因果循环分析表明，过早终止此类干预是有风险的。基于这一结果和随后的定量模型，我们发现，短期先发制人的居家请求的短期有效性导致积极案例的数量回升，而额外的请求对经济措施(例如，电子口碑交流和餐馆光顾的数量)提供了有限的负面附加效应。(4)结论：与强间歇性干预相比，在流行压力下，温和的持续干预作为一种长期对策具有优越性。
(1) Background: During the global spread of COVID-19, Japan has been among the top countries to maintain a relatively low number of infections, despite implementing limited institutional interventions and its high population density. This study investigated how limited intervention policies have affected public health and economic conditions in the COVID-19 context and aimed to gain insight into the effective and sustainable measures against new infectious diseases in densely inhabited areas. (2) Methods: A system dynamics approach was employed. Qualitative causal loop analysis and stock and quantitative flow model analysis were performed, using a Tokyo Metropolitan area dataset. (3) Results: A causal loop analysis suggested that there were risks in prematurely terminating such interventions. Based on this result and the subsequent quantitative modeling, we found that the short-term effectiveness of a short-term pre-emptive stay-at-home request caused a resurgence in the number of positive cases, whereas an additional request provided a limited negative add-on effect for economic measures (e.g., number of electronic word-of-mouth communications and restaurant visits). (4) Conclusions: These findings suggest the superiority of a mild and continuous intervention as a long-term countermeasure under epidemic pressures when compared with strong intermittent interventions.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17176238
发表时间：
2020-08-27
影响因子：
--
作者：
Niwa M;Hara Y;Sengoku S;Kodama K
通讯作者：
Kodama K
影响因子：
29.9
作者：
Haug, Nils;Geyrhofer, Lukas;Klimek, Peter
通讯作者：
Klimek, Peter
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Anguera-Torrell, Oriol;Aznar-Alarcon, Juan Pedro;Vives-Perez, Jordi
通讯作者：
Vives-Perez, Jordi
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Gerli, Alberto G.;Centanni, Stefano;Soriano, Joan B.
通讯作者：
Soriano, Joan B.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Raboisson, Didier;Lhermie, Guillaume
通讯作者：
Lhermie, Guillaume