An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty
An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty
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基于主体的方法研究气候变化不确定性下光伏板和绿色屋顶联合放置的扩散率和政策效应
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114402
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Omitaomu, Olufemi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ramshani, Mohammad;Li, Xueping;Khojandi, Anahita;Omitaomu, Olufemi
光伏板和绿色屋顶作为两种最具发展趋势的绿色技术，已被证明是发电和节能的有效做法。然而，广泛采用这种技术所能产生的影响还没有明确确定。这主要是因为这种影响的程度高度取决于固有的不确定的环境和气候因素，以及这些技术的未知采用率，而采用率又取决于决策者的不同特征和他们之间的相互作用。为此，本研究旨在探讨这些绿色技术在气候变化不确定性下的扩散速率、采用者的特征及其相互作用。开发了一个综合框架来捕捉财务和态度方面之间的相互作用，以及由于系统参数的随机性质和涉及人类的代理之间的相互作用而产生的不确定性。具体来说，该框架包括一个整数规划模型，用于在气候变化不确定性下优化给定建筑的绿色屋顶和/或光伏板安装设置，以及一个基于主体的模型，用于考虑人类行为和相互作用的作用。本文以田纳西州诺克斯维尔市为例，评估了不同政策对相关绿色技术传播速度的影响。结果表明，绿色技术的可负担性和公众意识是绿色技术采用的关键驱动因素，这凸显了决策者在影响绿色技术扩散速度方面的重要作用。
As two of the highest trending green technologies, photovoltaic panels and green roofs are proven to be effective practices for energy generation and energy saving. The achievable impact from the widespread installation of such technologies is, however, not clearly established. This is mainly because the degree of this impact highly depends on the inherently uncertain environmental and climate factors, as well as the unknown adoption rates of these technologies, which in turn depend on different characteristics of decision makers and interactions among them. To that end, this study aims to investigate the diffusion rate of these green technologies under uncertainties caused by climate change, characteristics of adopters, and their interactions. An integrated framework is developed to capture the interplay between financial and attitudinal aspects, as well as the uncertainties due to both the stochastic nature of system parameters and the interactions among agents involving human beings. Specifically, this framework consists of a integer programming model to optimize the green roof and/or photovoltaic panel installation settings for a given building under climate change uncertainty, and an agent-based model to factor in the role of human behavior and interactions. A case study for the city of Knoxville, TN, is presented to evaluate the effects of different policies on the diffusion rate of the green technologies of interest. The results show that the affordability of green technologies and public awareness are the key drivers of the adoption of these technologies, which highlight the important role of the decision makers in impacting the diffusion rate.
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DOI：
10.1109/wsc.2017.8247861
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference
影响因子：
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作者：
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发表时间：
2009
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