An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread.
An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread.
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影响COVID-19传播因素的分析研究
DOI：
10.1016/j.sjbs.2020.11.067
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Lashin MMA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aabed K;Lashin MMA
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的爆发继续构成国际公共卫生紧急事件。季节性是人类许多病毒感染的长期公认的属性。然而，人们对环境因素与感染传播之间的关系，特别是人与人之间的传染病传播之间的关系仍然知之甚少。这项研究探讨了环境因素与截至2020年4月13日报告COVID-19病例的188个国家的COVID-19发病率之间的关系。在这里，我们表明，在疫情爆发期间，COVID-19的增长率在北方半球的温带达到峰值，而在热带地区则较低。COVID-19与环境因素之间的关系不受空气污染、海平面和人口等潜在混杂影响的影响。为了证明这些因素的影响，对意大利、西班牙和中国的COVID-19流行情况进行了研究和分析。设计了一个模糊逻辑系统来预测这些变量对COVID-19病毒传播速度的影响。
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health emergency. Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans. Nevertheless, the relationship between environmental factors and the spread of infection, particularly for person-to-person communicable diseases, remains poorly understood. This study explores the relationship between environmental factors and the incidence of COVID-19 in 188 countries with reported COVID-19 cases as of April 13, 2020. Here we show that COVID-19 growth rates peaked in temperate zones in the Northern Hemisphere during the outbreak period, while they were lower in tropical zones. The relationships between COVID-19 and environmental factors were resistant to the potentially confounding effects of air pollution, sea level, and population. To prove the effect of those factors, study, and analysis of the prevalence of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, and China was undertaken. A fuzzy logic system was designed to predict the effects of that variables on the rate of viral spread of COVID-19.
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