Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector.
Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0192887
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Piaggio AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hayes MA;Piaggio AJ
普通吸血蝙蝠（Desmodus rotundus）分布于南美洲大部分地区至北方梅西科。吸血蝙蝠在美国近代历史上尚未被记录，但在美国德克萨斯州约50公里范围内有记录。吸血蝙蝠经常以哺乳动物的血液为食，可以将狂犬病病毒传播给本地物种和牲畜，对猎物的健康造成影响。因此，养牛者、野生动物管理机构和其他利益相关者都对吸血蝙蝠是否会蔓延到美国南部表示担忧。另一方面，对吸血蝙蝠传播的狂犬病的担忧也可能导致在吸血蝙蝠占据的地区的蝙蝠栖息地的肆意破坏，但也可能导致在不知道该物种占据的地区的破坏。这反过来又会对一些蝙蝠栖息地、种群和物种产生负面影响，包括吸血蝙蝠。为了更好地了解吸血蝙蝠在北美的当前和未来可能的分布，并帮助减轻未来的牛管理问题，我们使用了来自北美的7，094个吸血蝙蝠发生记录和物种分布模型（SDM）来绘制吸血蝙蝠在当前和未来气候变化情景下在北美的潜在分布。我们使用5种物种分布建模方法分析和绘制了该物种的潜在分布：逻辑回归，多元自适应回归样条，增强回归树，随机森林和最大熵。然后，我们将这些模型预测到2070年的17个“最坏情况”的未来气候情景，以产生关于北美吸血蝙蝠分布在未来可能发生变化的假设。在本分析中使用的变量中，最冷月份的最低温度使用所有5种SDM方法具有最高的变量重要性。这些结果表明，在不久的将来，吸血蝙蝠可能会通过两条途径扩散到美国，一个经过德克萨斯州南部，另一个进入佛罗里达南部。我们的一些SDM模型支持这样的假设，即墨西哥-美国部分地区目前可能存在吸血蝙蝠的合适栖息地。边境地区，包括得克萨斯州的最南端以及佛罗里达南部。然而，这一分析也表明，在未来60年内向美国东南部和西南部的广泛扩张似乎不太可能。
Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 “worst-case” future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México–U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely.
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DOI：
10.2307/3504022
发表时间：
1984-01-01
期刊：
Mammalian Species
影响因子：
--
作者：
GREENHALL A M;SCHMIDT U;JOERMANN G
通讯作者：
JOERMANN G
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Dormann, Carsten F.;Schweiger, Oliver;Zobel, Martin
通讯作者：
Zobel, Martin
DOI：
10.2307/3503895
发表时间：
1983-01-01
期刊：
Mammalian Species
影响因子：
--
作者：
GREENHALL A M;JOERMANN G;SCHMIDT U
通讯作者：
SCHMIDT U
DOI：
10.2307/2422300
发表时间：
1955-01-01
期刊：
AMER MIDLAND NAT
影响因子：
--
作者：
DALQUEST, WALTER W.
通讯作者：
DALQUEST, WALTER W.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A