Blowback: new formal perspectives on agriculturally driven pathogen evolution and spread
Blowback: new formal perspectives on agriculturally driven pathogen evolution and spread
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反作用：关于农业驱动的病原体进化和传播的新的正式观点
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
R. Wallace
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Wallace;R. Wallace
综上所述，传统农业和保护性农业在时间、空间和模式上的多样性，可能会造成限制病原体进化的障碍，并类似于灭菌温度的传播。大规模的单一种植和有限制的动物饲养场作业消除了这些障碍，导致在农业生态学特定阈值以上发展和广泛传播新的疾病株。我们应用了一类新开发的进化过程的必要条件统计模型，首先使用了一种进化稳定的病毒病原体的理论，这种病原体容易受到疫苗治疗的影响：二战后，英国和美国突然广泛使用汽车和汽车，出现了脊髓灰质炎。然后，我们研究了一种进化上可变的病原体--北美的猪流感。该模型表明，全球化集约化畜牧业以及跨不断扩大的单一养殖牲畜的饲养和运输带来的流行病学反弹可能会产生更大的后果，推动病毒选择，以获得更大的毒力和对生物医学干预的低反应。
SUMMARY By their diversity in time, space, and mode, traditional and conservation agricultures can create barriers limiting pathogen evolution and spread analogous to a sterilizing temperature. Large-scale monocropping and confined animal feeding-lot operations remove such barriers, resulting, above agroecologically specific thresholds, in the development and wide propagation of novel disease strains. We apply a newly developed class of necessary-conditions statistical models of evolutionary process, first using the theory on an evolutionarily stable viral pathogen vulnerable to vaccine treatment: post-World War II poliomyelitis emerged in the UK and USA from sudden widespread adoption of automobile ownership and usage. We then examine an evolutionarily variable pathogen, swine influenza in North America. The model suggests epidemiological blowback from globalizing intensive husbandry and the raising and shipping of monoculture livestock across increasing expanses, is likely to be far more consequential, driving viral selection for greater virulence and lowered response to biomedical intervention.
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Myers, KP;Olsen, CW;Gray, GC
通讯作者：
Gray, GC