Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions.
Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-022-03459-z
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Majer, Johann M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Formanski, Felix J.;Pein, Marcel M.;Loschelder, David D.;Engler, John-Oliver;Husen, Onno;Majer, Johann M.
我们调查是否通信策略，描绘气候变化作为一个非线性现象引起增加外行的气候变化风险的看法。在一个高性能的、预先注册的在线实验中，参与者被暴露在对未来气温上升的线性或非线性预测中，如果全球温室气体排放量不减少，那么未来气温将上升。我们假设，气候变化描绘的类型会影响定性风险特征（灾难性的潜力，后果的可控性）的看法，这反过来又会影响外行的整体风险的看法。研究结果表明，气候变化描述的类型并不影响对风险的看法或其他社会认知变量，如功效信念。虽然接触到气候变化非线性描述的参与者认为气候系统发生突变的可能性更大，但他们并不认为气候变化的后果更难以控制或更具灾难性。然而，值得注意的是，接触过线性或非线性气候变化描述的参与者比没有接触过气候相关信息的参与者愿意向环境组织捐赠更多的钱。本研究的局限性和未来的研究方向进行了讨论。
We investigate whether communication strategies that portray climate change as a nonlinear phenomenon provoke increases in laypeople’s climate change risk perceptions. In a high-powered, preregistered online experiment, participants were exposed to linear or nonlinear predictions of future temperature increases that would be expected if global greenhouse gas emissions were not reduced. We hypothesized that the type of climate change portrayal would impact perceptions of qualitative risk characteristics (catastrophic potential, controllability of consequences) which would, in turn, affect laypeople’s holistic risk perceptions. The results of the study indicate that the type of climate change portrayal did not affect perceptions of risk or other social-cognitive variables such as efficacy beliefs. While participants who were exposed to a nonlinear portrayal of climate change perceived abrupt changes in the climate system as more likely, they did not perceive the consequences of climate change as less controllable or more catastrophic. Notably, however, participants who had been exposed to a linear or nonlinear portrayal of climate change were willing to donate more money to environmental organizations than participants who had not been presented with a climate-related message. Limitations of the present study and directions for future research are discussed.
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