Evaluating the 2019 NARO-APCC Joint Crop Forecasting Service Yield Forecasts for Northern Hemisphere Countries
Evaluating the 2019 NARO-APCC Joint Crop Forecasting Service Yield Forecasts for Northern Hemisphere Countries
复制标题
评估 2019 年 NARO-APCC 联合作物预报服务对北半球国家的产量预测
作者：
T. Iizumi;Yonghee Shin;Jaewon Choi;M. Velde;L. Nisini;Wonsik Kim;Kwang
在粮食供应链全球化和观察到极端气候发生频率增加的背景下，预测全球粮食生产越来越重要。国家农业和粮食研究中心-亚太经济合作气候中心作物预测服务利用季节性温度和降水预测作为主要投入，每月提供全球农田产量预测，最近完成了为期一年的服务运行测试。在这里，我们通过与欧盟委员会联合研究中心（JRC）和美国农业部（USDA）报告的产量和预测进行比较，评估了2019年主要商品作物产量的预测。对位于北方的20个国家的玉米、小麦、大豆和水稻的预测进行了评估，其中包括美国的39个作物生产州，这些国家2019年的产量报告已经公开。NARO-APCC的预测比JRC和USDA的预测早了几个月。NARO-APCC的预测技巧在绝对值上是好的，但是NARO-APCC的预测误差几乎总是大于JRC和USDA的预测误差。随着收获期的临近，JRC和USDA的预测误差有所减少，而NARO-APCC的预测误差在整个季节中相当稳定，只有一些例外。虽然这一特点似乎是一个缺点，它可能会变成一个优势，如果熟练的预测是在一个赛季的早期阶段实现。最后，我们讨论了相对优势和劣势以及改善全球产量预测的潜在方法。
Forecasting global food production is of growing importance in the context of globalizing food supply chains and observed increases in the frequency of climate extremes. The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization–Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (NARO-APCC) Crop Forecasting Service provides yield forecasts for global cropland on a monthly basis using seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts as the main inputs, and 1 year of testing the operation of the service was recently completed. Here we evaluate the forecasts for the 2019 yields of major commodity crops by comparing with the reported yields and forecasts from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Forecasts for maize, wheat, soybean, and rice were evaluated for 20 countries located in the Northern Hemisphere, including 39 crop-producing states in the United States, for which 2019 reported yields were already publicly available. The NARO-APCC forecasts are available several months earlier than the JRC and USDA forecasts. The skill of the NARO-APCC forecasts was good in absolute terms, but the forecast errors in the NARO-APCC forecasts were almost always larger than those of the JRC and USDA forecasts. The forecast errors in the JRC and USDA forecasts decreased as the harvest approached, whereas those in the NARO-APCC forecasts were rather stable over the season, with some exceptions. Although this feature seems to be a disadvantage, it may turn into an advantage if skillful forecasts are achievable in the earlier stages of a season. We conclude by discussing relative advantages and disadvantages and potential ways to improve global yield forecasting.
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Anderson, W. B.;Seager, R.;You, L.
通讯作者：
You, L.