Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period
Impact of downward longwave radiative deficits on Antarctic sea-ice extent predictability during the sea ice growth period
复制标题
海冰生长期间向下长波辐射赤字对南极海冰范围可预测性的影响
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d66
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Wang, Sheng-Hung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cerovečki, Ivana;Sun, Rui;Bromwich, David H.;Zou, Xun;Mazloff, Matthew R.;Wang, Sheng-Hung
从亚季节到季节尺度预测南极大气、海洋和海冰状况仍然是一项重大挑战。在冰冻和融化季节，目前的业务综合预报系统显示出对南极海冰边缘位置的系统性高估。海冰覆盖预报的技巧与模式中云表示的精度密切相关，因为两者是由云辐射强迫强烈耦合的。特别是，地表向下长波辐射(DLW)赤字似乎是南大洋上空大气模型的一个共同缺陷。例如，最近欧洲气象中心第五代再分析(ERA5)全球再分析与麦克默多站观测的比较显示，由于过冷云液态水的模式短缺，海洋气团中的DLW全年亏损约50Wm−2。与2016年1月至2018年11月系泊在南太平洋的海洋观测站倡议在54.08W89.67W的S处进行的地面DLW辐射观测相比较，证实了在海冰边缘以北的ERA5中DLW大约有20Wm的−2赤字。利用一个区域海洋模式，模拟结果表明，在大气强迫作用下，当DLW人为增加50Wm−2时，海冰增长的预测值与观测值吻合较好。各种各样的敏感性测试表明，预测的异常大的海冰范围并不是由于海洋模型的限制，而是隐含着大气强迫的原因。
Forecasting Antarctic atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice conditions on subseasonal to seasonal scales remains a major challenge. During both the freezing and melting seasons current operational ensemble forecasting systems show a systematic overestimation of the Antarctic sea-ice edge location. The skill of sea ice cover prediction is closely related to the accuracy of cloud representation in models, as the two are strongly coupled by cloud radiative forcing. In particular, surface downward longwave radiation (DLW) deficits appear to be a common shortcoming in atmospheric models over the Southern Ocean. For example, a recent comparison of ECMWF reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) global reanalysis with the observations from McMurdo Station revealed a year-round deficit in DLW of approximately 50 Wm− 2 in marine air masses due to model shortages in supercooled cloud liquid water. A comparison with the surface DLW radiation observations from the Ocean Observatories Initiative mooring in the South Pacific at 54.08 S, 89.67 W, for the time period January 2016–November 2018, confirms approximately 20 Wm− 2 deficit in DLW in ERA5 well north of the sea-ice edge. Using a regional ocean model, we show that when DLW is artificially increased by 50 Wm− 2 in the simulation driven by ERA5 atmospheric forcing, the predicted sea ice growth agrees much better with the observations. A wide variety of sensitivity tests show that the anomalously large, predicted sea-ice extent is not due to limitations in the ocean model and that by implication the cause resides with the atmospheric forcing.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Sun S;Eisenman I
通讯作者：
Eisenman I
极地天气研究和预报模型（WRF）和南极中尺度预测系统（AMPS）模拟的南极洲西部中部夏季云的微物理
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
K. Hines;D. Bromwich;Sheng‐Hung Wang;I. Silber;J. Verlinde;D. Lubin
通讯作者：
D. Lubin
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Ogle, S. E.;Tamsitt, V.;Weller, R. A.
通讯作者：
Weller, R. A.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Losch, Martin;Menemenlis, Dimitris;Hill, Chris
通讯作者：
Hill, Chris
2018 年 2 月南大洋海冰预报评估
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
F. Massonnet;P. Reid;J. Lieser;C. Bitz;J. Fyfe;W. Hobbs
通讯作者：
W. Hobbs