The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach.
The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0254456
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Safdar N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alagoz O;Sethi AK;Patterson BW;Churpek M;Alhanaee G;Scaria E;Safdar N
疫苗接种计划旨在控制 COVID-19 大流行。然而，在使用口罩和保持身体距离等非药物干预措施的背景下，疫苗覆盖率、有效性和能力对 SARS-CoV-2 传播的相对影响尚不清楚。我们的目标是使用我们之前开发的基于代理的模拟模型来检查疫苗接种对控制 SARS-CoV-2 的影响。我们应用基于代理的模型来复制 1) 威斯康星州戴恩县的 COVID-19 相关事件； 2）威斯康星州密尔沃基都会区； 3）纽约市（NYC）。我们评估了疫苗接种的影响，考虑了接种疫苗的人口比例、接种疫苗的个体获得免疫力的概率、疫苗接种能力以及对非药物干预措施的依从性。我们估计了大流行控制的时间，定义为之后仅出现少量新病例的日期。大流行控制的时机在很大程度上取决于疫苗接种覆盖率、有效性和对非药物干预措施的遵守。在戴恩县和密尔沃基，如果 50% 的人口接种疫苗，每日疫苗接种能力为人口的 0.25%，疫苗有效性为 90%，并且对非药物干预措施的依从性为 60%，那么到 2021 年 6 月即可实现受控传播，而戴恩县为 2021 年 10 月，密尔沃基为 2021 年 11 月，无需接种疫苗。在控制 SARS-CoV-2 传播方面，疫苗接种的影响差异很大，不仅取决于有效性和覆盖范围，还取决于同时坚持非药物干预措施。
Vaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was to examine the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 using our previously developed agent-based simulation model. We applied our agent-based model to replicate COVID-19-related events in 1) Dane County, Wisconsin; 2) Milwaukee metropolitan area, Wisconsin; 3) New York City (NYC). We evaluated the impact of vaccination considering the proportion of the population vaccinated, probability that a vaccinated individual gains immunity, vaccination capacity, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. We estimated the timing of pandemic control, defined as the date after which only a small number of new cases occur. The timing of pandemic control depends highly on vaccination coverage, effectiveness, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. In Dane County and Milwaukee, if 50% of the population is vaccinated with a daily vaccination capacity of 0.25% of the population, vaccine effectiveness of 90%, and the adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 60%, controlled spread could be achieved by June 2021 versus October 2021 in Dane County and November 2021 in Milwaukee without vaccine. In controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the impact of vaccination varies widely depending not only on effectiveness and coverage, but also concurrent adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions.
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影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Weisblum Y;Schmidt F;Zhang F;DaSilva J;Poston D;Lorenzi JC;Muecksch F;Rutkowska M;Hoffmann HH;Michailidis E;Gaebler C;Agudelo M;Cho A;Wang Z;Gazumyan A;Cipolla M;Luchsinger L;Hillyer CD;Caskey M;Robbiani DF;Rice CM;Nussenzweig MC;Hatziioannou T;Bieniasz PD
通讯作者：
Bieniasz PD
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Codella, James;Safdar, Nasia;Alagoz, Oguzhan
通讯作者：
Alagoz, Oguzhan
DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciab079
发表时间：
2021-12-16
期刊：
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
影响因子：
--
作者：
Moghadas SM;Vilches TN;Zhang K;Wells CR;Shoukat A;Singer BH;Meyers LA;Neuzil KM;Langley JM;Fitzpatrick MC;Galvani AP
通讯作者：
Galvani AP
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2035389
发表时间：
2021-02-04
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Baden LR;El Sahly HM;Essink B;Kotloff K;Frey S;Novak R;Diemert D;Spector SA;Rouphael N;Creech CB;McGettigan J;Khetan S;Segall N;Solis J;Brosz A;Fierro C;Schwartz H;Neuzil K;Corey L;Gilbert P;Janes H;Follmann D;Marovich M;Mascola J;Polakowski L;Ledgerwood J;Graham BS;Bennett H;Pajon R;Knightly C;Leav B;Deng W;Zhou H;Han S;Ivarsson M;Miller J;Zaks T;COVE Study Group
通讯作者：
COVE Study Group
DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2020.02054
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
Health affairs (Project Hope)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Paltiel AD;Schwartz JL;Zheng A;Walensky RP
通讯作者：
Walensky RP