The revolution is conditional? The conditionality of hydrogen fuel cell expectations in five European countries

The revolution is conditional? The conditionality of hydrogen fuel cell expectations in five European countries
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革命是有条件的吗?

DOI:
10.1016/j.erss.2020.101722
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发表时间:
2020
影响因子:
6.7
通讯作者:
Julia Brinkmann
Julia Brinkmann
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
P. Upham;P. Bögel;E. Dütschke;Uta Burghard;C. Oltra;R. Sala;M. Lores;Julia Brinkmann

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技术期望社会学研究的问题之一是,对新技术的期望如何有助于调动或阻碍承诺和投资。在这方面和其他方面,研究提到了非正式的个人期望的“海洋”,并将其与路线图等正式愿景进行了对比。在这里,我们首先确定和文件的静态和移动的应用氢燃料电池(H2FCs),持有的创新系统的演员那些不太正式的,个人的期望。然后,我们表明,这些通常涉及的条件和不确定性,与政策和社会的技术。相比之下,正式的路线图提出了大胆的可能性,这些可能性建立在大胆的政策假设之上,而这些政策假设忽略了非正式预期所承认的社会和政策不确定性。我们认为,有政策价值的非正式预期:他们揭示了需要解决的问题和需要满足的条件。此外,这些问题往往是社会和政治问题,也是技术问题。我们通过对西班牙、德国、斯洛文尼亚、法国和英国的145位氢燃料电池创新系统参与者的访谈,说明了这些问题的多样性。
The sociology of technological expectations examines, amongst other questions, the way in which expectations of new technologies help to mobilise or hinder commitment and investment. In this and other regards, studies have referred to a ‘sea’ of informal, individual expectations, contrasting these with formal visions such as roadmaps. Here we first identify and document those less formal, individual expectations of static and mobile applications for hydrogen fuel cells (H2FCs), as held by innovation system actors. We then show that these typically involve conditionalities and uncertainties that relate as much to policy and society as to technology. In contrast, formal roadmaps set out bold possibilities premised on heroic policy assumptions that elide the social and policy uncertainties that informal expectations admit to. We argue that there is policy value in informal expectations: that they reveal issues that need to be addressed and conditions that need to be met. Moreover these are often social and political, as well as technological. We illustrate the variety of such issues with expectations-related data from interviews with 145 hydrogen fuel cell innovation system actors in Spain, Germany, Slovenia, France and the UK.
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