Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia
Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia
复制标题
评估伊比利亚未来特大干旱的威胁
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5140
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Guerreiro S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guerreiro S
水资源短缺是伊比利亚半岛的一个关键问题，但很少有研究调查该地区未来的干旱。少数进行的研究是大陆或全球研究，并且没有报告未来可能预测的范围。本文利用气候模型观测到的和缩小规模的降雨数据，对伊比利亚主要国际盆地（杜罗河、塔霍河和瓜迪亚纳河）的历史干旱和未来干旱预测进行了研究。使用两个干旱指数：标准化降水指数（SPI）和干旱严重程度指数（DSI）。然而，计算 SPI 所需的分布拟合存在问题，导致该指数不足以评估伊比利亚的干旱情况。 CMIP5 气候模型在代表杜罗河、塔霍河和瓜迪亚纳河历史干旱方面的能力差异很大，有些模型没有显示出足够的干旱条件持续性，而另一些则模拟了时间太长、太严重的干旱。然而，观测到的这些流域的干旱条件范围已被集合成员所涵盖。此外，我们发现模拟平均大尺度环流的性能与模型重现该地区历史干旱特征的能力之间没有关系。所有模型都预测这三个流域的干旱状况将会加剧。然而，一些预测仅小幅增加，而大多数预测到本世纪末将出现极端的多年干旱。我们发现气候模型的未来预测既与其模拟历史干旱的表现也不与其大规模环流模式相关。这一结果强调了气候变化影响研究需要考虑整个气候模型预测范围，以便为强有力的适应提供最佳信息。根据历史表现选择一个或一部分气候模型不会导致不确定性的可信和合理的减少。
Water scarcity is a critical issue in Iberia but few studies have investigated future drought over the region. The few that do are continental or global studies and do not report the range of possible future projections. In this paper, historical drought and future projections of drought were examined, using observed and downscaled rainfall data from climate models, for the main Iberian international basins (Douro, Tagus and Guadiana). Two drought indices were used, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the drought severity index (DSI). However, problems were found in the distribution fitting required for the calculation of SPI which render this index inadequate for assessing droughts in Iberia. The skill of CMIP5 climate models in representing historical drought for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana is very variable with some not showing enough persistence of dry conditions, and others simulating droughts that are too long and too severe. Nevertheless, the observed range of drought conditions for these basins was encompassed by the ensemble members. Furthermore, we found no relationship between performance in simulating mean large‐scale circulation and model ability to reproduce the historical drought characteristics for the region. All models project an intensification of drought conditions for the three basins. However, some only project small increases, while most project extreme multi‐year droughts by the end of the century. We found that climate model future projections are neither related to their performance in simulating historical drought nor to their large‐scale circulation patterns. This result emphasises the need for climate change impact studies to take into account the whole range of climate model projections in order to provide the best information for robust adaptation. Choosing one or a subset of climate models based on historical performance would not lead to a credible and justified reduction in uncertainty.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.2256
发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
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作者：
Herrera, S.;Gutierrez, J. M.;Fernandez, J.
通讯作者：
Fernandez, J.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.810
发表时间：
2002-11-15
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Goodess, CM;Jones, PD
通讯作者：
Jones, PD
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Deser, Clara;Phillips, Adam;Teng, Haiyan
通讯作者：
Teng, Haiyan
使用广义线性模型降低葡萄牙中部的日降水量：趋势和极端值分析
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
M. Pulquério;P. Garrett;F. Santos;M. J. Cruz
通讯作者：
M. J. Cruz
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Knutti;G. Abramowitz;M. Collins;V. Eyring;P. Gleckler;B. Hewitson;L. Mearns
通讯作者：
R. Knutti;G. Abramowitz;M. Collins;V. Eyring;P. Gleckler;B. Hewitson;L. Mearns