Estimation of Rift Valley fever virus spillover to humans during the Mayotte 2018-2019 epidemic.
Estimation of Rift Valley fever virus spillover to humans during the Mayotte 2018-2019 epidemic.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2004468117
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发表时间：
2020-09-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Subiros M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Métras R;Edmunds WJ;Youssouffi C;Dommergues L;Fournié G;Camacho A;Funk S;Cardinale E;Le Godais G;Combo S;Filleul L;Youssouf H;Subiros M
裂谷热(RVF)是一种新出现的人畜共患出血热，主要影响非洲的牲畜和人类。尽管它日益受到全球的关注，但使用经验数据的控制措施对流行病动态的影响尚未得到评估。通过将涵盖封闭生态系统(马约特岛)中牲畜和人类数据的独特RVF流行病数据集与动态模型相结合，我们估计了病毒在牲畜中以及从牲畜到人类之间的传播潜力。我们还量化了疫苗接种在减少疫情规模方面的影响。我们证明，牲畜反应性疫苗接种是关键。我们提供了一个RVF的参考案例研究，并说明了One Health量化方法在人畜共患传染病监测和控制中的价值。裂谷热(RVF)是一种新出现的人畜共患病的虫媒病毒出血热，主要在非洲威胁牲畜和人类。RVF是全球关注的问题，在过去几十年中扩大了其地理范围。尚未使用经验数据评估控制措施对疫情动态的影响。在这里，我们建立了一个数学模型，对2018-2019年马约特疫情中的牲畜和人类裂谷热病例数据进行血清阳性检测，以估计病毒在牲畜中的传播，以及通过直接接触和媒介介导的途径从牲畜向人类的溢出。模型模拟被用来评估疫苗接种对减少疫情规模的影响。直接接触的外溢率大约是媒介传播的两倍。假设30%的人口是农民，每条传播途径分别占人类感染人数的45%和55%。对20%的牲畜进行了反应性免疫接种，使人类病例数量减少了30%。接种疫苗1个月后，需要多使用50%的疫苗剂量才能达到类似的效果。仅为农民接种疫苗需要10倍以上的疫苗剂量，才能减少类似的人类病例。最后，由于疫情结束时有52.0%(95%可信区间[CRI][42.9-59.4])的牲畜免疫，病毒不太可能在下一个雨季(2019-2020年)重新出现。在这种情况下，协调的人类和动物健康监测以及及时的牲畜疫苗接种似乎是控制裂谷热的关键。此外，我们还论证了One Health量化方法在监测和控制人畜共患传染病方面的价值。
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic hemorrhagic fever, affecting mainly livestock and humans in Africa. Despite its growing global concern, the impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. By combining a unique RVF epidemic dataset covering both livestock and human data in a closed ecosystem (Mayotte island) with a dynamic model, we estimate viral transmission potential among livestock, and from livestock to humans. We also quantify the impact of vaccination in decreasing the epidemic size. We demonstrate that reactive livestock vaccination is key. We present a reference case study for RVF and illustrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic, arboviral hemorrhagic fever threatening livestock and humans mainly in Africa. RVF is of global concern, having expanded its geographical range over the last decades. The impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. Here, we fitted a mathematical model to seroprevalence livestock and human RVF case data from the 2018–2019 epidemic in Mayotte to estimate viral transmission among livestock, and spillover from livestock to humans through both direct contact and vector-mediated routes. Model simulations were used to assess the impact of vaccination on reducing the epidemic size. The rate of spillover by direct contact was about twice as high as vector transmission. Assuming 30% of the population were farmers, each transmission route contributed to 45% and 55% of the number of human infections, respectively. Reactive vaccination immunizing 20% of the livestock population reduced the number of human cases by 30%. Vaccinating 1 mo later required using 50% more vaccine doses for a similar reduction. Vaccinating only farmers required 10 times as more vaccine doses for a similar reduction in human cases. Finally, with 52.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] [42.9–59.4]) of livestock immune at the end of the epidemic wave, viral reemergence in the next rainy season (2019–2020) is unlikely. Coordinated human and animal health surveillance, and timely livestock vaccination appear to be key to controlling RVF in this setting. We furthermore demonstrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases.
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影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Hatchett, Richard;Lurie, Nicole
通讯作者：
Lurie, Nicole
影响因子：
9.4
作者：
Bird, Brian H.;Bawiec, Darcy A.;Nichol, Stuart T.
通讯作者：
Nichol, Stuart T.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1208059110
发表时间：
2013-05-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Jones, Bryony A.;Grace, Delia;Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo
通讯作者：
Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo
DOI：
10.1016/0035-9203(79)90005-1
发表时间：
1979-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
HOOGSTRAAL, H;MEEGAN, JM;ADHAM, FK
通讯作者：
ADHAM, FK
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Brubaker, JF;Turell, MJ
通讯作者：
Turell, MJ