Pathogen-host associations and predicted range shifts of human monkeypox in response to climate change in central Africa.
Pathogen-host associations and predicted range shifts of human monkeypox in response to climate change in central Africa.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0066071
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Rimoin AW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thomassen HA;Fuller T;Asefi-Najafabady S;Shiplacoff JA;Mulembakani PM;Blumberg S;Johnston SC;Kisalu NK;Kinkela TL;Fair JN;Wolfe ND;Shongo RL;LeBreton M;Meyer H;Wright LL;Muyembe JJ;Buermann W;Okitolonda E;Hensley LE;Lloyd-Smith JO;Smith TB;Rimoin AW
预计气候变化将通过对病原体的直接影响或通过病媒和宿主物种的范围变化间接导致传染病的地理范围和当地流行程度的变化。为了更好地了解猴痘病毒（MPXV）是一种新兴的正痘病毒，在当前和未来气候条件下在人类中的发生情况，我们结合气候和遥感变量，使用生态位建模技术。我们首先在非洲刚果盆地创建了其候选储层物种的空间显式概率分布。水库物种分布随后用于模拟当前和预测未来人类猴痘（MPX）的分布。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，森林砍伐和气候是MPX从野生动物向人类传播的重要驱动因素。模型在当代气候条件下表现良好，体现在接收算子曲线下面积（AUC）的高值，以及在空间随机和非随机省略的测试数据上的测试。对IPCC第四次评估报告2050年和2080年的未来气候变化情景进行了预估，预估范围从更保守到更激进，并代表了可能发生变化的潜在变化范围。未来的预测显示，范围会转移到以前没有记录到MPX的地区。预计刚果民主共和国东部将增加MPX的适宜性。这里开发的模型有助于确定环境条件可能变得更适合人类MPX的地区；针对候选储层物种进行未来筛选；并确定未来MPX监测工作的优先区域。
Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.
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发表时间：
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