Landscape drivers of recent fire activity (2001-2017) in south-central Chile.

Landscape drivers of recent fire activity (2001-2017) in south-central Chile.
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DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0201195
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发表时间:
2018
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Currey B
Currey B
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
McWethy DB;Pauchard A;García RA;Holz A;González ME;Veblen TT;Stahl J;Currey B

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近几十年来,大火影响了智利中部和南部的社区,造成了巨大的社会和生态后果。尽管这种高火灾活动,控制和驱动程序和火灾的时空模式还没有得到很好的理解。为了确定智利中南部(约32-40° S纬度)六个地区最近火灾活动的大规模趋势和驱动因素,我们评估了MODIS卫星衍生的火灾探测,并将此数据与智利林务局2001-2017年期间的记录进行了比较。中分辨率成像光谱仪烧毁面积估计提供了一个空间和时间上的全面记录火灾活动之间的一个重要的生物气候过渡区干燥的地中海灌丛/硬叶森林和潮湿的落叶阔叶万年青林。结果表明,火灾活动在任何一年都是高度可变的,火灾数量或平均年燃烧面积没有统计学显著趋势。对2001-2017年期间与火灾时空模式相关的变量的评估表明,植被类型、生物物理条件(例如,海拔,坡度),平均年和季节气候条件(例如,降雨量)和平均人口密度对任何给定年份的火灾发生概率和烧毁面积的影响最大。在较温暖、生物量丰富的低地比奥比奥和阿劳卡尼亚地区,火灾次数和年烧毁面积最多。资源选择分析表明,火灾“优先”发生在外来种植园林,混合本土外来森林,本土硬叶林,牧场和matorral,植被类型,都提供了丰富的,易燃的和连接的生物质燃烧。结构和成分均匀的外来种植园林可能会促进火灾蔓延大于本地落叶假山毛榉森林,曾经广泛分布在南部地区的研究领域。未来,在以易燃和燃料丰富的森林种植园和混合的本土-外来和硬叶森林为主的景观中,气候变暖和干燥的巧合可能会进一步助长智利中南部的大火。
In recent decades large fires have affected communities throughout central and southern Chile with great social and ecological consequences. Despite this high fire activity, the controls and drivers and the spatiotemporal pattern of fires are not well understood. To identify the large-scale trends and drivers of recent fire activity across six regions in south-central Chile (~32–40° S Latitude) we evaluated MODIS satellite-derived fire detections and compared this data with Chilean Forest Service records for the period 2001–2017. MODIS burned area estimates provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive record of fire activity across an important bioclimatic transition zone between dry Mediterranean shrublands/sclerophyllous forests and wetter deciduous-broadleaf evergreen forests. Results suggest fire activity was highly variable in any given year, with no statistically significant trend in the number of fires or mean annual area burned. Evaluation of the variables associated with spatiotemporal patterns of fire for the 2001–2017 period indicate vegetation type, biophysical conditions (e.g., elevation, slope), mean annual and seasonal climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation) and mean population density have the greatest influence on the probability of fire occurrence and burned area for any given year. Both the number of fires and annual area burned were greatest in warmer, biomass-rich lowland Bío-Bío and Araucanía regions. Resource selection analyses indicate fire ‘preferentially’ occurs in exotic plantation forests, mixed native-exotic forests, native sclerophyll forests, pasture lands and matorral, vegetation types that all provide abundant, flammable and connected biomass for burning. Structurally and compositionally homogenous exotic plantation forests may promote fire spread greater than native deciduous-Nothofagaceae forests which were once widespread in the southern parts of the study area. In the future, the coincidence of warmer and drier conditions in landscapes dominated by flammable and fuel-rich forest plantations and mixed native-exotic and sclerophyll forests are likely to further promote large fires in south-central Chile.
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