Modelling adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus survival at different temperatures in laboratory and field settings.
Modelling adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus survival at different temperatures in laboratory and field settings.
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DOI：
10.1186/1756-3305-6-351
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发表时间：
2013-12-12
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Hay SI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brady OJ;Johansson MA;Guerra CA;Bhatt S;Golding N;Pigott DM;Delatte H;Grech MG;Leisnham PT;Maciel-de-Freitas R;Styer LM;Smith DL;Scott TW;Gething PW;Hay SI
成年雌性伊蚊的存活是其传播登革热病毒等病原体能力的关键组成部分。伊蚊生存的主要决定因素之一是温度，这与伊蚊种群的季节性变化有关，并限制了它们的地理分布。在实地研究了温度和其他死亡来源的影响，通常是通过标记-释放-再捕获实验，并在实验室的受控条件下进行。生存结果不同，两种环境之间的协调预测受到不同实验方案的变量测量，测量自由放养的蚊子的生存缺乏精确度，以及该领域年龄相关死亡率作用的不确定性的阻碍。在这里，我们应用广义添加剂模型的数据从351出版的成人AE。埃及伊蚊和埃及伊蚊。在实验室进行白纹伊蚊生存实验，为每个物种在其生存温度范围内建立生存模型。然后调整这些模型，以估计在不同温度下的生存在现场使用的数据从59 Ae。埃及伊蚊和埃及伊蚊。白纹伊蚊野外生存实验。建模过程中每个阶段的不确定性都被传播，以提供我们预测的置信区间。结果表明，Ae.白纹伊蚊的存活率高于Ae. aegypti在实验室和现场，然而，Ae.埃及人可以忍受更大范围的温度。对这两个物种按年龄和温度进行了全面的生存分类。实验室和现场模型之间的差异也让我们深入了解温度、其他环境因素和衰老对死亡率的相对贡献，以及这些因素在什么范围内可能是重要的。我们的研究结果支持的重要性，产生特定地点的蚊子生存估计。通过包括波动的温度制度，我们的模型提供了深入了解季节性模式的Ae。埃及伊蚊和埃及伊蚊。白纹伊蚊种群动态可能与登革热病毒传播的季节性变化有关。我们的模型可以与伊蚊和登革热建模工作相结合，以指导和评估病媒控制，更好地绘制疾病分布图，并为登革热流行建立预警系统。
The survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes is a critical component of their ability to transmit pathogens such as dengue viruses. One of the principal determinants of Aedes survival is temperature, which has been associated with seasonal changes in Aedes populations and limits their geographical distribution. The effects of temperature and other sources of mortality have been studied in the field, often via mark-release-recapture experiments, and under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Survival results differ and reconciling predictions between the two settings has been hindered by variable measurements from different experimental protocols, lack of precision in measuring survival of free-ranging mosquitoes, and uncertainty about the role of age-dependent mortality in the field. Here we apply generalised additive models to data from 351 published adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus survival experiments in the laboratory to create survival models for each species across their range of viable temperatures. These models are then adjusted to estimate survival at different temperatures in the field using data from 59 Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus field survivorship experiments. The uncertainty at each stage of the modelling process is propagated through to provide confidence intervals around our predictions. Our results indicate that adult Ae. albopictus has higher survival than Ae. aegypti in the laboratory and field, however, Ae. aegypti can tolerate a wider range of temperatures. A full breakdown of survival by age and temperature is given for both species. The differences between laboratory and field models also give insight into the relative contributions to mortality from temperature, other environmental factors, and senescence and over what ranges these factors can be important. Our results support the importance of producing site-specific mosquito survival estimates. By including fluctuating temperature regimes, our models provide insight into seasonal patterns of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population dynamics that may be relevant to seasonal changes in dengue virus transmission. Our models can be integrated with Aedes and dengue modelling efforts to guide and evaluate vector control, better map the distribution of disease and produce early warning systems for dengue epidemics.
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影响因子：
5.7
作者：
CLEMENTS, AN;PATERSON, GD
通讯作者：
PATERSON, GD
影响因子：
2.1
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影响因子：
2.1
作者：
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