Accounting for spatial autocorrelation and environment are important to derive robust bat population trends from citizen science data
Accounting for spatial autocorrelation and environment are important to derive robust bat population trends from citizen science data
复制标题
考虑空间自相关和环境对于从公民科学数据中得出稳健的蝙蝠种群趋势非常重要
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108719
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Browning E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Browning E
如果要实现扭转生物多样性下降的全球目标，监测野生动物种群是至关重要的。最近对英国长期国家蝙蝠监测计划(NBMP)数据的分析表明，许多蝙蝠物种的种群趋势稳定或增加，这些统计数据有助于为实现国家生物多样性目标提供信息。然而，虽然基于强有力的公民科学调查设计，但尚不清楚这些趋势对空间和环境偏差有多敏感。在这里，我们使用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似(INLA)的贝叶斯分层模型，通过英国NBMP现场调查(GB)监测的四个物种的相对占有率来检验这些类型的偏差对种群趋势的影响：管道线虫、P.pygmaeus、Nyctalus noctulaus和Eptesicus serotinus。在可能的情况下，我们还使用每个物种的最佳模型将趋势分类到国家一级，以确定一旦考虑到抽样偏差，各国在趋势上的差异是否仍然存在。尽管我们在NBMP现场调查地点发现了空间聚集的证据，但之前报道的GB范围内的人口趋势对空间自相关性大体上是稳健的。在大多数物种中，考虑到空间自相关性和物种-环境关系，改进了模型拟合。这些按国家分类的模型强调，与先前对这些数据的分析一致，全GB范围的趋势掩盖了英格兰和苏格兰之间的差异，并说明了调查工作中的巨大差距，特别是在威尔士。我们认为，尽管蝙蝠的数量趋势被发现对这些数据中存在的抽样偏差大体上是稳健的，但微小的差异可能会随着时间的推移而传播，这种影响在结构较差的公民科学数据中可能会更加严重。因此，确保趋势对公民科学数据集中存在的抽样偏差是强有力的，对于有效监测实现生物多样性目标的进展情况、可持续地管理人口并最终扭转全球下降的趋势至关重要。
Monitoring wildlife populations is essential if global targets to reverse biodiversity declines are to be met. Recent analysis of data from the UK’s long-term National Bat Monitoring Programme (NBMP) suggests stable or increasing population trends for many bat species, and these statistics help inform progress towards national biodiversity targets. However, although based on robust citizen science survey designs, it is unknown how sensitive these trends are to spatial and environmental biases. Here we use Bayesian hierarchical modelling with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), to examine the impact of these types of biases on the population trends using relative occupancy of four species monitored by the NBMP Field Survey in Great Britain (GB):Pipistrellus pipistrellus, P. pygmaeus, Nyctalus noctulaandEptesicus serotinus. Where possible, we also disaggregated trends to national levels using the best model per species to determine if national differences in trends remain once sampling biases are accounted for. Although we found evidence of spatial clustering in the NBMP Field Survey locations, the previously reported GB-wide population trends are broadly robust to spatial autocorrelation. In most species, accounting for spatial autocorrelation and species-environment relationships improved model fit. The nationally disaggregated models highlighted that GB-wide trends mask differences between England and Scotland, consistent with previous analysis of these data, as well as illustrating large gaps in survey effort, especially in Wales. We suggest that although bat population trends were found to be broadly robust to sampling biases present in these data, small differences could propagate over time and this impact is likely to be more severe in less structured citizen science data. Therefore, ensuring trends are robust to sampling biases present in citizen science datasets is critical to effective monitoring of progress towards biodiversity targets, managing populations sustainably, and ultimately a reversal of global declines.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1650/condor-17-83.1
发表时间：
2017-07
期刊：
The Condor
影响因子：
--
作者：
John R. Sauer;K. Pardieck;David J Ziolkowski;Adam C. Smith;Marie-Anne R. Hudson;V. Rodriguez;H. Berlanga;D. Niven;W. Link
通讯作者：
John R. Sauer;K. Pardieck;David J Ziolkowski;Adam C. Smith;Marie-Anne R. Hudson;V. Rodriguez;H. Berlanga;D. Niven;W. Link
蝙蝠作为生物指示剂：简介
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
D. Russo;Gareth J. F. Jones
通讯作者：
Gareth J. F. Jones
影响因子：
16.8
作者：
Outhwaite, Charlotte L.;Gregory, Richard D.;Isaac, Nick J. B.
通讯作者：
Isaac, Nick J. B.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Burns F;Eaton MA;Barlow KE;Beckmann BC;Brereton T;Brooks DR;Brown PM;Al Fulaij N;Gent T;Henderson I;Noble DG;Parsons M;Powney GD;Roy HE;Stroh P;Walker K;Wilkinson JW;Wotton SR;Gregory RD
通讯作者：
Gregory RD
影响因子：
2
作者：
Catto, CMC;Hutson, AM;Stephenson, PJ
通讯作者：
Stephenson, PJ