Predictions of response to temperature are contingent on model choice and data quality.
Predictions of response to temperature are contingent on model choice and data quality.
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DOI：
10.1002/ece3.3576
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发表时间：
2017-12
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Geider RJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Low-Décarie E;Boatman TG;Bennett N;Passfield W;Gavalás-Olea A;Siegel P;Geider RJ
用于解释生物过程（包括生长和代谢速率）的温度依赖性的方程是我们预测全球地球化学和地理学如何响应全球气候变化的基础。我们回顾并测试了12个方程的使用，这些方程用于模拟生物过程在整个温度响应范围内的温度依赖性，包括超最佳和次最佳温度。我们专注于拟合这些方程的浮游植物生长的热响应曲线，但也测试了各种各样的生物体的各种特征的方程。我们发现，许多调查的方程有相当的能力，以适应数据和同样高的要求，数据质量（测试温度和范围的响应捕获），但导致不同的估计基数温度和生物率在这些温度。当这些速率估计值用于地理学预测时，即使是最佳拟合模型的估计值之间的差异也可能超过全球变暖十年的全球生物变化预测。因此，对全球温度变化的生物反应的研究必须仔细考虑模型选择和用于参数化这些模型的数据质量。
The equations used to account for the temperature dependence of biological processes, including growth and metabolic rates, are the foundations of our predictions of how global biogeochemistry and biogeography change in response to global climate change. We review and test the use of 12 equations used to model the temperature dependence of biological processes across the full range of their temperature response, including supra‐ and suboptimal temperatures. We focus on fitting these equations to thermal response curves for phytoplankton growth but also tested the equations on a variety of traits across a wide diversity of organisms. We found that many of the surveyed equations have comparable abilities to fit data and equally high requirements for data quality (number of test temperatures and range of response captured) but lead to different estimates of cardinal temperatures and of the biological rates at these temperatures. When these rate estimates are used for biogeographic predictions, differences between the estimates of even the best‐fitting models can exceed the global biological change predicted for a decade of global warming. As a result, studies of the biological response to global changes in temperature must make careful consideration of model selection and of the quality of the data used for parametrizing these models.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
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