What Is the Impact of Lockdowns on Dengue?
What Is the Impact of Lockdowns on Dengue?
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DOI：
10.1007/s11908-020-00744-9
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Wilder-Smith A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brady O;Wilder-Smith A
为应对COVID-19大流行而实施的社会封锁对地球仪的日常生活造成了前所未有的干扰。这些封锁的附带影响可能是改变了广泛的传染病的传播动态，这些传染病都高度依赖于人类之间的接触率。由于各国封锁的时间、持续时间和强度各不相同，2020年的封锁浪潮提供了一个独特的机会，可以在全球自然实验中观察人类接触率、疾病控制和监测的变化如何影响登革热病毒的传播。我们探讨了封锁对登革热传播和监测影响的理论基础，然后总结了来自国家报告的现有证据基础。我们发现，2020年迄今为止报告的登革热疫情强度存在相当大的差异，一些国家的传播水平处于历史低位，而另一些国家则出现了创纪录的疫情。尽管许多研究警告封锁对登革热传播的风险，但很少有实证量化的影响和问题，如封锁的具体时间和登革热的多年周期没有考虑在内。在少数考虑到这些问题的研究中，封锁对登革热的影响似乎有限。研究封城对登革热传播的影响对我们如何应对当前的COVID-19和登革热危机以及未来几年的疫情后恢复期都很重要。很明显，封锁在不同的环境中产生了非常不同的影响。进一步的分析可能最终使这种独特的自然实验能够为如何更好地控制登革热提供见解，最终将导致更好的长期控制。
Societal lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to unprecedented disruption to daily life across the globe. A collateral effect of these lockdowns may be a change to transmission dynamics of a wide range of infectious diseases that are all highly dependent on rates of contact between humans. With timing, duration and intensity of lockdowns varying country-to-country, the wave of lockdowns in 2020 present a unique opportunity to observe how changes in human contact rates, disease control and surveillance affect dengue virus transmission in a global natural experiment. We explore the theoretical basis for the impact of lockdowns on dengue transmission and surveillance then summarise the current evidence base from country reports. We find considerable variation in the intensity of dengue epidemics reported so far in 2020 with some countries experiencing historic low levels of transmission while others are seeing record outbreaks. Despite many studies warning of the risks of lockdown for dengue transmission, few empirically quantify the impact and issues such as the specific timing of the lockdowns and multi-annual cycles of dengue are not accounted for. In the few studies where such issues have been accounted for, the impact of lockdowns on dengue appears to be limited. Studying the impact of lockdowns on dengue transmission is important both in how we deal with the immediate COVID-19 and dengue crisis, but also over the coming years in the post-pandemic recovery period. It is clear lockdowns have had very different impacts in different settings. Further analyses might ultimately allow this unique natural experiment to provide insights into how to better control dengue that will ultimately lead to better long-term control.
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影响因子：
25.7
作者：
Chen, Lin H;Leder, Karin;Wilson, Mary E
通讯作者：
Wilson, Mary E
影响因子：
25.7
作者：
Dickens, Borame L.;Koo, Joel R.;Cook, Alex R.
通讯作者：
Cook, Alex R.
影响因子：
25.7
作者：
Chu IY;Alam P;Larson HJ;Lin L
通讯作者：
Lin L
影响因子：
25.7
作者：
Angelo KM;Stoney RJ;Brun-Cottan G;Leder K;Grobusch MP;Hochberg N;Kuhn S;Bottieau E;Schlagenhauf P;Chen L;Hynes NA;Perez CP;Mockenhaupt FP;Molina I;Crespillo-Andújar C;Malvy D;Caumes E;Plourde P;Shaw M;McCarthy AE;Piper-Jenks N;Connor BA;Hamer DH;Wilder-Smith A
通讯作者：
Wilder-Smith A
影响因子：
7.2
作者：
Chowdhury PB;Hossain S;Biswas RK
通讯作者：
Biswas RK